On May 18th last year, the San Jose Earthquakes started their first choice back line: Paul Marie, Nathan, Francisco Calvo, and Marcos López, with JT Marcinkowski behind them in goal. On opening day this year, it’s quite possible that zero of those five will be in the starting XI, with Carlos Akapo, Rodrigues, Jonathan Mensah, Miguel Trauco, and Daniel in their respective places. And that doesn’t even include defensive midfielder, where the Quakes were so keen to upgrade they spent a club-record fee on Carlos Gruezo.
Turnover on that scale is not unheard of but is certainly unusual. Then again, the Quakes were the worst defending team in MLS last year, finishing dead last in goals against (GA) and expected goals against (xGA). In fact, they shipped the 6th most goals of the last decade of MLS play. So none of the incumbents could truly consider their jobs safe.
That being said, the turnover still raises some questions and a few elements in particular caught my attention as potentially being worth further analysis. First, several of the departures (Calvo, López) were motivated by transfer income rather than dissatisfaction with play, and one (Nathan) would have surely kept his place if not for injury. Second, one of the presumed new starters (Rodrigues) was brought in midseason last year and got a decent run in last year’s porous defense, too. Third, and most interestingly: four of the five replacements (all but Daniel) are on contracts that allow the team to cut ties after this year, which indicates that the San Jose front office itself doesn’t view this current group as a long-term foundation.
As such, let’s analyze the last 9 months of moves at the back through the lens of roster-building:
The planned rebuild
Selling Calvo and López was simply the rational thing to do. Calvo was on the wrong side of 30 and on a sizable salary, was contributing well but with legitimate doubts if he could be part of a strong back line, had personal reasons for seeking a move, and got an offer that returned a bit of GAM. López had always set his heart on Europe and his contract was about to expire, so collecting a 7-figure transfer fee was if anything a job well done. Plus, while López was an impressive prospect and a good athlete, he was not always consistent in a Quakes uniform, and more of an attacker than a defender. Those two departures, combined with a thin starting point for defensive depth, and very poor defensive results, meant the team was going to be looking to rebuild at the back anyway, starting in summer 2022.
The first reinforcements signed were right back Carlos Akapo, 29, a free agent from La Liga, and center back Rodrigues, then 24, from Gremio in the Brasileirao. Akapo arrived still in recovery from a broken foot suffered via Eden Hazard, and therefore made no appearances for the Quakes in 2022. Rodrigues, on the other hand, made 7 starts down the stretch as the team floundered. You can read my initial scouting report of the two here, but my general view remains that Akapo appears to be a decent fit and an upgrade over Paul Marie as a defense-first fullback, whereas I view Rodrigues as something closer to a league-average CB who will likely be fine but is unlikely to transform the group. That being said, Rodrigues did post high levels of defensive activity (tackles, interceptions, etc) paired with respectable passing which is at least an encouraging early sign.
A few weeks later, the club also sealed the signature of Peruvian left-back Miguel Trauco, 30, who was previously in Ligue 1. He’s less of an athlete but more defensively savvy than his countryman López, whom he was replacing. As such, I’d expect him to get forward less and dribble past fewer players, but to hold his position better. He’s a good enough passer to combine at least as well as López with the midfield. I don’t think he will necessarily constitute an upgrade, but it’s an adequate replacement, and I think he will stylistically fit in quite naturally in Luchi Gonzalez’s possession-oriented system.
Obviously, with the timing and injury status of those incoming moves, 2023 was what the front office had in mind, with the lost season of 2022 being a bit more of an afterthought. So they should be seen as essentially part of this offseason’s plan.
Beyond the larger moves I’ve discussed above, the Quakes also did some work on their depth options. Paul Marie’s option was exercised after a strong season, Tommy Thompson was re-signed (presumably to a smaller deal), Homegrown Keegan Tingey was brought in for further fullback depth, and the club drafted Daniel Munie, a center-back they rated far higher than the 10th overall slot they managed to take him at. None of these players are likely to dramatically alter the trajectory of the defensive results individually, but collectively (along with the yet-to-be-mentioned Tanner Beason and Oskar Ågren) they provide for much better defensive depth than existed at any point last year. Of that group, the one whose upside I would monitor is (the still-not-officially-signed) Munie, who has a lot of admirers around the league, and has popped up on the goal sheet a few times already this preseason. He could easily provide a Beason-level of contribution to the club in the next few years, which is no small thing.
A planned surprise
With three of four defensive starters replaced and Nathan presumed to remain, the last area in need of examination was the goalkeeper spot. Marcinkowski posted a dreadful statistical 2022, shipping an MLS-worst 10 goals over expected after average-to-decent numbers in 2020 and 2021. Even tracking back to USL, he was never particularly exemplary in those pure shot-stopping categories. Then again, he demonstrated some high-level skill on the ball, improved his on-ball composure over time, and had enough athleticism to get off his line and sweep up behind a defense, all skills that are important in the modern game and particularly in Luchiball. He’s also a homegrown player on a modest contract who might look much better behind a more competent back line, playing a more structured system than what he saw under Almeyda and his aftermath, and under the tutelage of a highly-regarded new goalkeepers coach in Adin Brown.
There are a lot of interesting elements here, and I’d encourage you all to read Jamon Moore’s article on the subject for much greater depth. We also have hashed it out in our most recent episode of The Aftershock. Essentially, though, the analytics perspective is that pure shot-stopping is hugely valuable for deciding games, yet undervalued in the transfer market. That would imply that even paying a transfer fee for a high-salaried foreign keeper could make a lot of sense, because it can move the needle as much (or more) than, say, an attacking midfielder of the same cost. San Jose’s front office therefore had to debate internally whether they were more aligned with this analytical perspective, or the “pro-JT” perspective I outlined above, and ultimately decided to follow the path of the nerds.
With that debate settled, the actual target for the keeper upgrade, Daniel, makes all the sense in the world. He’s been an elite shot stopper in the Brasileirao, is prime-age at 28, and was available on fairly reasonable terms. He’s not the most defensively active as a sweeper-keeper, probably a downgrade with his feet, and apparently has a mistake or two in him. But even with all that, his statistical value over JT appears to be immense. Paying a transfer fee, and likely higher wages than JT, is a fair price for that. But it means that he’s expected to start unless JT can significantly elevate his game. As such, while this constitutes a bit of a surprise for fans, it was planned and scouted well in advance by the club itself.
If you’re keeping track, that means that the Quakes brought in 4 players, all on decently sizable wages (Trauco’s reported $150k is an understatement according to my sources), all of whom take international slots (valued at around $250k each in GAM), and at least two (Rodrigues and Daniel) requiring transfer fees as well. That’s a big level of investment, fitting for an overhaul of a terrible unit. But it also means that fans have every right to expect meaningful improvement, although I’d mention that this still only would take them into the middle of the pack for spending on defenders and keepers across MLS. I think that generally each move pushes the team in a positive direction, but I would not confidently yet say that this will definitely be a top unit in the league.
The unplanned replacement
With all that work done at the back, and the front office not necessarily planning anything further, who knew that the biggest signing was still yet to come? Unfortunately, of course, it was not a happy circumstance: it only came about because of an ACL injury to Nathan in preseason, inconveniently suffered just after the European transfer windows closed. While the club has not confirmed that the injury is an ACL tear, nor have they confirmed that they’ll be using the MLS mechanism to place him on the injury list and take his salary off the cap, it’s reasonable to assume they believe the injury is serious, and therefore required urgent action.
In those sub-optimal circumstances, they managed something of a coup. The Columbus Crew were already in discussions to trade Jonathan Mensah, 32, and Houston Dynamo hesitated just long enough to allow the Quakes to swoop in and snag him for just $200k in GAM (with an additional $150k each year if he’s still on the roster in 2024 and 2025). He’s on a quite large $1M+ salary, and his contract expires after this year, hence the low transfer fee, but in terms of quality of player, there’s a lot to like. He’s a cool-headed, positionally-sound center back who is an excellent passer out of the back. In many ways, he’s the opposite of Nathan and Rodrigues, who are hyperactive. He’s the Clarence Goodson to their Muma Bernardez, the ice to their fire. If anything, the Mensah/Rodrigues pairing is quite a bit better balanced than the Nathan/Rodrigues pairing that was the plan before.
Oh and of course, he’s also a former MLS Best XI, MLS champion, Ghana international with World Cup experience, and all-around well-respected defender with a reputation as a leader. He’s probably not as athletic as Nathan, and definitely not as aggressive, but he’s also less liable to be caught out, and is truly excellent in the air. Straight up, he’s better.
Given the circumstances, it’s somewhat remarkable the club managed to upgrade their starting lineup from a position of desperation/necessity, without actually breaking the bank to do so. For what it’s worth, Mensah is on a green card, so does not take up an international slot.
Clearing the decks for the future
As noted above, one of the fascinating things about all these moves is what it sets up for next offseason: San Jose can likely cut ties at no cost with all 4 presumed defensive starters. Trauco, Rodrigues, and Akapo all have options for 2024 that can be declined, and Jonathan Mensah’s contract fully expires after this year. If we include Nathan as a presumed starter when healthy, there’s actually a 5th potential departure: 2023 is likely the end of the guaranteed portion of his contract (he was originally listed as on a “three year” contract but signed mid-year in 2021, so there is some ambiguity here).
Trauco, Akapo, and Mensah will all be in their 30s at that point, making it fairly reasonable for the club to want to have an opt-out, if San Jose doesn’t believe they’ll maintain their performance levels into the future. Rodrigues is on a somewhat complicated loan-with-an-option-to-buy that allows them to trial him for a full year before making a call. And Nathan’s contract likely would have been up for an extension if not for his long-term injury.
As such, all of it makes sense individually. But collectively, they can wipe the defensive slate completely clean, for the second time in just 18 months. To me, that indicates that the club isn’t certain it has found the long-term solutions it wants at each position, and therefore is constructing something that will be good enough for now until those future solutions are identified.
Does that sound negative? It shouldn’t. If it was easy to get ideal long-term options at every position, everyone would do it. A disciplined front office knows how to pivot to Plan B if that ideal target isn’t available at a reasonable price, and “good enough for now, without creating long-term financial obligations” is a great Plan B. And in particular, good front offices leave themselves outs to protect against downside risk unless it’s a player whose upside (a combination of talent and age) is worth it. As far as I’m concerned, that means the Quakes have played things correctly.
What all of this means for fans boils down to two things: 1) this back line will be quite different than last year, and likely at least a bit better 2) even if it is better, but especially if it isn’t, the club has set itself up to likely make big further changes next offseason with an eye to longer-term solutions. That will be fascinating to watch, especially since all that turnover and evaluation will be taking place under a brand-new coach running the first orthodox defensive system in San Jose for 5 years.
I’ll set a timer for June, let’s check back in then.
