Going into the final match before the World Cup break, the San Jose Earthquakes have lost three at a trot. And in what fashion! Seattle away by giving up a free header to the giant Osaze De Rosario; Dallas home by keeping the most annoying man in MLS (laudatory) online, and then simply folding after some early great saves by Niko Hansen in the Open Cup match at Colorado.
Blah.
May sees the Quakes at 2 points (0-3-2) so far. If they get a result at Portland, this would put their Goddawful May 2026 at a “better than most months in 2024” level. It’s bad, there are alarm bells sounding, the ship is taking damage etc…But why?
Injuries and Fatigue, Obviously
The dip in form is very directly linked to long-term injuries to Niko Tsakiris and Timo Werner. It’s also worth saying, hey, DeJuan Jones and Vitor Costa, the top two left backs, have played a combined 450 minutes and might not do much more.
The fatigue and general depth issues, which were “no, duh” problems before the season began, are also worth spelling out: it’s not just that Beau Leroux isn’t as good of a 10 as Niko, it’s also that the dropoff from him to Ian Harkes at the 8 is steep. The minutes geting logged by forwards like Ousseni Bouda and Preston Judd, as well as the backline pairing of Daniel Munie and Reid Roberts, are also getting run down. In a defensive system like what the Quakes run, where the focus is on keeping the opponents in front of you, kicking the ball around meaninglessly in their defensive third, being a step late to a rotation means the opposition gets a clean break.
There have been many, many, steps late over the past month.
Can This Team Survive Without Timo and/or Niko?
No.
Ousseni Bouda has proven to be a fantastic far-post finisher, but he’s been silent since Timo and Niko are out – he can’t erase folks off the dribble or create chances. Neither Nick Fernandez or Leroux have proven themselves to be more than a 2nd or 3rd-choice creator (which is fine, if your top two creators aren’t shelved with long term injuries!).
This leaves the team relying even more on transition goals. But without the suffocating defense, they have less space to run into – and leave themselves more and more open to a counter-press.
The only new addition so far is Darius Johnson. I don’t think he’s a Timo/Niko replacement but more of a complement: someone who can do midfield ball retention and be nifty in the attack. Any other additions would likely also be at the edges: maybe a healthy fullback with pace and the ability to deliver a low, driven, cross. Maybe a Tactics Free Center Forward and/or a centerback, depending on Bruce Arena’s evolving faith in Nonso Adimabua and Max Floriani. Any Designated Player would likely be taken on more as an accounting mechanism than as a truly transformational player. Such is the summer transfer window in San Jose.
Identifying a Ceiling & Floor
In a broad sense, we have seen the best and the worst the Earthquakes can offer: either a lock-tight defense that’s deadly in transition – MLS’ own Klopp-era Liverpool – or a moribund side that’s continually chasing the game – the Luchi Gonzalez Quakes in tie-dye kits.
The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. The World Cup break gives Timo another preseason (albeit he’s likely to go back to Germany for a bit to see his newborn) and other Quakes time to recover. Of course, other teams get to recover and reload as well.
Losing in the Open Cup quarterfinals is a bummer, as that looked like the team’s best chance at hardware this year. Then again, with the rest of the Cup schedule on the road, the odds were against them.
Although the Quakes have been leading the Supporters’ Shield race for much of the first third of the season, it’s likely Nashville SC’s trophy to lose. The Eastern Conference is that much weaker than the West, and the Fightin’ Cristian Espinozas really only have two matches with Miami and a road trip back to San Jose that they aren’t favored in for the remaining 21 matches of the season.
How will San Jose match up against the rest of the West? It honestly depends on how teams use the post-World Cup break to reload. A top-four finish seems likely if the Quakes can get their attackers back: they have already played four matches against the other teams (two each with Vancouver and Seattle, garnering 4 points), and they largely dodge summer in Texas, which has been a historic bugbear. A deep playoff run, for a team that hasn’t had any playoff run for the past 15 years, would be a great place to start.
It may not be so satisfying, with two guys in Arena and Werner who expect trophies wherever they go. But it’s at the very least a fun way to spend late summer if it’s closer to the April Quakes than the wilting May version.
