If you were hoping for a transformational summer transfer window, this wasn’t it. It appears that any more transformational roster surgery will have to wait until the offseason, under a new (permanent) manager.
The San Jose Earthquakes simply replaced the two major pieces they lost, and left fans’ nerves a bit jangled by leaving it until after the deadline to announce them. That being said, the two replacements are, in my judgment, adequate.
As such, I wanted to provide a bit of a scouting report for fans so they knew what they were getting. In case it’s of interest, I also wanted to mention how someone like me gathers information to analyze players: Football Manager and Transfermarkt both have excellent databases of contractual information, FBref is my favorite statistical site because its “Scouting Reports” show those stats in context of the player’s peers at the same position, and Wyscout is a subscription video scouting service that makes it easy to dial up quick-hit reels of actions that go beyond highlights. And of course, I do check the subjective ratings from Football Manager and FIFA (if available) to see what those scouts describe as a player’s strengths and weaknesses.
Carlos Akapo, 29 (Right Back)
Akapo was signed as a free agent, having most recently played for Cádiz in the Spanish top flight, where he made 25 starts last year. He represents Equatorial Guinea internationally, but was born and raised in Spain. He’s right-footed, so has dominantly played right back during his career, although he’s covered at left-back at times too. To give you the vaguest sense of his quality, Football Manager gives him the highest overall rating of any Quakes defender. And keep in mind, whether it’s data, video, or subjective ratings, it’s evaluating him in the context of opponents who are of a much higher level than what he’ll see in MLS.
The very first thing that stands out about him is his burst of pace: he’s electric. Offensively, that allows him to make off-ball runs that are disruptive. Defensively, it shows in his recovery speed, where he rarely appeared to be completely beaten because of it. In terms of the rest of his physical profile, he seems at least respectably strong despite a slight frame, and he’s statistically good in the air but I didn’t see it on tape personally.
Defensively, I wouldn’t describe him as a “disruptive” presence: he didn’t appear to truly lock wingers down or cleanly win the ball regularly, although the data says he did win a fair number of tackles. His tracking and positioning seems largely solid, aided by the aforementioned pace. However, there’s one element that really stands out: he has an eye for the interception. You see it a fair amount on tape, and statistically, he was the top interceptor amongst La Liga fullbacks last year. It’s one part the anticipation and vision required to read it, but it’s also a product of that incredible burst that allows him to surprise attackers by cutting down their passing lanes faster than they might expect.
Offensively, I will say that his technical skillset seems somewhat limited, at least in La Liga context. I don’t know if I saw him beat his man on the dribble a single time, other than perhaps to round a defender with his pace once or twice. His touch looked middling, although he seemed largely calm on the ball. He looks like an extremely limited/conservative passer, and the stats back that up, although of course those stats must be understood in the context of playing for one of La Liga’s weakest teams. The one offensive skill that does seem to show on tape is crossing, where he regularly put in nice, shaped early balls.
What you have, then, is a fairly traditional/orthodox fullback. He’s athletic and pacy, with better defensive skills than any fullback the Quakes have had on roster this year, and offensive tools that are more MLS than La Liga. To the extent I have a concern, it’s that his relatively vertical game, getting to the end line and whipping in crosses, is not a particularly good compliment for Cristian Espinoza, his likely partner on the right. Akapo could of course instead be asked to take the left side, which would instead negate his strongest offensive skill (right-footed crossing). If you made a left-footed version of him? He’d be an ideal replacement for López.
Regardless, FM had him at something on the order of $250k/year last year, which is a great deal for a starter-level fullback in MLS. A free transfer, for modest wages, for a La Liga level fullback, is objectively a great piece of business, particularly when the club desperately needed one. Seriously, for people like me who have covered the club for a long time, it’s kind of wild to have a La Liga transfer and have the fans be more or less non-plussed about it. This ain’t 2015 anymore, let alone 2009.
He’ll 100% improve the team, and at 29, it’s possible he’ll have a few more years of strong contribution. For me, though, this would have been a really nice way to solidify the fullback group with Marcos López on roster. Without López, it still feels like they’re a man short.
Rodrigues, 24 (Center Back)
Here’s a small compilation of some of Rodrigues’ best actions.
This transfer from Gremio was completed by the deadline, but only barely, so the announcement came afterwards. Antônio Josenildo Rodrigues de Oliveira (Rodrigues) has been playing for Gremio for 5 seasons, including 2 seasons where he played a prominent starting role for them in the top flight. He’s a true center back, although all the tape I saw on him had him on the right of a 3-back set up, so the skillset is a bit different than a traditional stopper. For what it’s worth, FBRef doesn’t have its usual stats package in Brazil so I couldn’t use that as reference.
He turns 25 in the fall, making him early prime-age. There was certainly a transfer fee, but not well into the seven figure range as some twitter accounts reported. FM had him on ~$400k/year, and I’d bet his cap hit (including transfer fee) is in low-TAM range, which is more or less good value as far as I’m concerned. Gremio was relegated last year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Quakes used that as leverage to buy at a discount to his ~$2M value on Transfermarkt.
He’s listed at 6’2″, and between the tape and the FM evaluation, you get the sense that he knows how to use his size and physicality. Strong in the air, aggressive, doesn’t seem to get pushed around more or less ever. He’s not specifically pacy for the position, but his pace is perfectly adequate, and he seems to react to things quickly enough to make up for it. That aggression, while a positive in some contexts, can also lead to him being caught out. As the RCB in a three, that’s not necessarily the end of the world. In a pair? It can be a problem. And I’d note that while he’s physical and aggressive, I didn’t see a particularly large volume of ball-winning in terms of tackles or interceptions, but that’s something I’d love to check the stats on.
On the ball is interesting: his feet aren’t necessarily super fluid, but he steps into midfield with confidence, and seems to be fairly strong at playing at least the straightforward kind of pass to begin the build-up. He’s definitely not Francisco Calvo, who was gifted with the ball at his feet, and FM has a fairly dim view of his technical refinement. But especially watching him from that RCB role, you can imagine perhaps more ability to push the ball upfield than, say, Tanner Beason.
As such, weirdly, I’d say Rodrigues has a similar profile to Nathan in terms of skills. My impression is that the club intends to use him on the left, and that they view him as more conservative overall than Nathan, which is what theoretically will create the balance. Maybe imagine him as a rich man’s Harold Cummings?
Either way, the age, price point, and pedigree all make a lot of sense. By coincidence, Football Manager has him listed almost exactly at the same overall rating as his fellow Brazilian, although to be totally honest I have my doubts he’s at that level. However, the current Quakes FO has shown to be fairly strong evaluators, so I’ll defer my trust to them. And the another center back was badly, badly needed.
Unfinished Business
Of course, these two transactions just represent replacing holes that were created by departures of starting-level players. And quite frankly, the squad was thin in places before those departures, which is why I proposed several major additions in this article a month ago. None of that forward progress happened.
I have sympathy for the Front Office’s position: it’s hard to lure players in mid-season, it’s hard to lure players when you’re at the bottom of the table, it’s hard to lure players when you’ve (until recently) been hamstrung by a manager with bafflingly bad opinions about roster construction, it’s hard to lure players without a permanent manager in place, it’s hard to lure players when you’re working with one of the league’s smallest budgets…you get the point.
The best deals happen when you’re patient and let the market come to you. However, it’s rare that you can cover all your needs in that fashion. Think of it like a house: ideally, you’d wait until the perfect listing came up. But you do still need a place to sleep at night in the mean time.
As things stand, the Quakes have just a 3% chance of making this year’s playoffs in the FiveThirtyEight model. This season is a write off, where the best you can hope for is to develop some younger guys and hope the performances aren’t so bad that they demoralize those who remain.
Next year absolutely has the potential to be better – but it’ll need a lot more spending to be authorized in the off season to allow the FO to fill the remaining holes and keep up with the rapidly-improving league.
