In a lot of things, people focus on getting from 0 to 1. Getting the ball rolling can be the hardest part. But in sports, I have the hunch that getting from bad (0) to competent (1) is easier than making the next leap to pretty good (2). And let’s not worry about getting from good to great just yet: we have to get remotely good first.
Huge credit goes to Chris Leitch for restoring competence to the franchise, primarily by firing the incompetent Matías Almeyda (about whom, luckily, I no longer have deluded fanboys in my mentions). Jeremy Ebobisse, Francisco Calvo, Jamiro Monteiro, and Ján Greguš were brought in at modest cost and have provided significant value. The front office even put in place a potentially league-leading analytics staff. We’re no longer an embarrassment.
The next step is trickier. When you have a bad starting player and have a clear pathway to a good one, that’s an easy improvement to make. Unfortunately, that’s not the case for most of the Earthquakes roster. Most positions are either just fine for the starter but lack depth (like attacking midfield), or have a ton of decent options but lack match-winners (like central midfield). That means you either have to pay over the odds to only marginally improve the starter, or backfill depth that will certainly help over the season but will not fundamentally change your trajectory.
As we approach the opening of the secondary transfer window on July 7, and in the wake of Chofis López leaving the club and opening another Designated Player spot, I wanted to do a bit of a status check-in with the current roster, and see if that would bring any insight into how the Quakes should approach the rest of the season.
To start, I’ll grade the starters and backups across the roster, with my grading scale below. The idea here is to assess their current on-field value; as such, it does not take into account long-term potential, and reflects my personal opinion of their talent when put into proper roles, rather than how good of a season they are having. No doubt, there will be disagreements. But it’s a place to start.
Grading scale:
| A+ | League-wide star (e.g. Vela) |
| A | Team’s star players (clear DP-level) |
| A- | Strong starter (high TAM/fringe DP) |
| B+ | Above-average starter (low TAM) |
| B | Middle-of-the-road starter |
| B- | Fringe starter |
| C’s (all) | Competent substitute |
| D’s (all) | Not currently MLS level |
Now, for the Quakes 2-deep (the top two options at each position):
| Pos. | Starter | Backup |
| ST | Jeremy Ebobisse (A-) | Benji Kikanović (B-) |
| LW | Cade Cowell (C+) | Ousseni Bouda (C) |
| RW | Cristian Espinoza (A-) | Will Richmond (C-) |
| CAM | Jamiro Monteiro (A) | Siad Haji (D+) |
| CM | Jackson Yueill (A-) | Ján Greguš (B+) |
| CDM | Eric Remedi (B) | Judson (B-) |
| LB | Marcos López (B) | Shea Salinas (C) |
| LCB | Francisco Calvo (B+) | Tanner Beason (B) |
| RCB | Nathan (B+) | Oskar Agren (C) |
| RB | Paul Marie (B) | Tommy Thompson (C+) |
| GK | JT Marcinkowski (B) | Matt Bersano (C) |
Ideally, you want a healthy number of “A”s in your first team, and no below-average starters. For those backups, you want a healthy number of “B”s, since depth is always tested. But realistically, you’re not going to do much better than that within the constraints of the MLS cap system. I’d also note that these evaluations are somewhat agnostic to their positional value and salary, which are of course also factors when deciding how to improve the roster.
For what it’s worth, it’s clear that Alex Covelo does not have a lot of faith in his depth, making just 2 of 5 allowed substitutions before garbage time against Chicago. As such, the goal is to improve the starting lineup best we can, and ideally push down some current starters into quality depth.
So where do we go from here? Here are three ideas this little exercise gave me:
Go big for a left winger
Simply put, left wing has been the least-productive position on the team so far this year. Cade Cowell has done little to impact games from there, and while Benji Kikanović and Jamiro Monteiro can certainly fill the role, it takes them away from their best positions (9 and 10, respectively). Even when they do play left wing, their contributions tend to come when they float into the spaces they more naturally occupy, which simply isn’t sustainable within a system.
If Cowell can grow into a high-impact guy, fantastic. I just don’t see it in the short term, and I don’t think it would significantly harm his development to switch to 30 minute stints off the bench until things started to click for him. And if a big-time offer comes in from Europe from a club betting on his potential and willing to be patient with his development, take it.
As such, a new left winger is needed, and luckily, it’s one of the highest-value positions, so a serious upgrade is possible. The team could go after a high-end DP target from South America, along the lines of Diego Rossi, if the ownership group wanted to make a splash. It’s hard to imagine a better place to do it. If the right high-end target isn’t out there, you could look for a TAM or U-22 target who would be a more consistent contributor than Cade, but wouldn’t necessarily be a franchise game-changer. The other day on Twitter, I suggested 22-year-old Samuel Shashoua from the Spanish second division, who recently switched international allegiance to the US, as someone who might well fit that bill.
The other benefit is that it addresses several depth issues all around the park. True left wingers can usually fulfill attacking midfield roles if necessary, covering for the dire situation below Monteiro on the depth chart, and provides more formation options if Alex Covelo needs to ditch the attacking mid altogether. It also pushes Kikanović more exclusively to a backup at striker, where he is at his best, and giving Ebobisse cover either to be subbed late in games or to rotate, which I view as a necessity given the incredible physical strain of that position. Finally, it even (slightly) addresses the left back issue by lessening the need for Shea Salinas farther upfield.
Swap out Remedi for a better fit at the 6
All it would take to fix this is a time machine: give me 2019 Judson, please! Having an athletic and committed ball-winner (and space-denier) covering for Yueill brought out the very best in him. However, it’s been quite a long time since we’ve seen that version of Judson. Eric Remedi is a perfectly adequate starter in that role, but what he provides is of a different flavor, and in my opinion, less complementary to Yueill. Greguš, who I think of quite highly on-the-ball, and who has some decent defensive instincts, is perhaps even less mobile than Remedi, and I view him as more of a high-quality replacement for Yueill than a complement.
What we need is an athletic enforcer, with enough class on the ball to avoid being a liability. In terms of who to model that on? The world-class version is Patrick Vieira. The class-of-MLS version is prime Osvaldo Alonso or Victor Wanyama, who was quietly excellent for Montréal over the last few years. The recent models from within the Quakes are 2019 Judson or 2015 Fatai Alashe.
Although not precisely the kind of player I’m talking about, I would’ve loved if San Jose had been aggressive and matched LAFC’s $1.1M offer for Kellyn Acosta earlier this year. I also am a huge fan of Mark-Anthony Kaye for this role, who moved the opposite direction for a similar price point a year earlier. A lower-budget alternative would be Russell Canouse, who is more sweat than skill, but fits the role well and is a reasonably young domestic player. Of course, if the Quakes find an excellent player in Latin America or Europe that might cost a bit more, great. But I don’t like stretching on value when you’re looking for fit.
Remedi is probably more valuable than he gets credit for, just not in this team. That’s why I’m recommending seeking out a trade for him in this scenario, leaving Judson as the backup to the new defensive mid, and freeing up a bit of space and resources.
Finally, while of course I would love to see this, it’s not the most pressing problem the Quakes face, since it’s at least slightly addressable through tactical tweaks. It’s also the one of my recommendations that is probably the hardest to find the right deals for on both sides.
Fix the fullback depth (by buying a new starting RB)
I probably have a higher opinion of Paul Marie than most people. His advanced stats are strong, I like a lot of what he contributes offensively, and defensively he’s passable if not great. It’s also a low-value position, so I hesitate to recommend significant investment in order to add very minor value to the team.
That being said, you could certainly talk me into replacing him with a starting-level right back, who ideally would replicate his offensive contributions but improve the defensive solidity (someone like a younger Lucho Abecasis). That would also solve the overall fullback depth issue, since Thompson and Marie are both capable of covering at left back, and this would give the team adequate numbers all around.
The alternative, of course, is just to go out and grab a backup left back. Nothing wrong with that approach, but it’s barely moving the needle of the results: it primarily is just downside protection against injury to López. Particularly in light of the fact Salinas, Thompson, and Marie can all cover there, I simply wouldn’t bother.
Conclusion
Next offseason will provide more flexibility (and a different financial structure, as the new TV deals kick in). Plus, clubs prefer to do major surgery in the offseason anyway, as it minimizes the need to learn on the fly. And don’t forget – the Quakes may well have an ambitious new manager in place, with his own opinions about how to build the team.
For now, though, look to the three moves above. They’re quicker and less disruptive fixes. And of course, remain opportunistic: as with all things, the best value comes to those who wait for it, and pounce when it comes along, even if it wasn’t in the plan. Replacing Calvo, whom rumors suggest may be leaving for an attractive fee, may fall into that.
This team is no longer incompetent. But it’s still a long way to being playoff-level. With a bit of luck, and these three moves, that just might be within reach.
