Will the Quakes make the playoffs in 2022 with Matias Almeyda at the helm?

Introduction

In the previous three articles in this series, we have discussed many things that are necessary for general manager Chris Leitch to right the Earthquakes’ ship. We’ve touched on where the roster needs to focus (a young core of players), where investments need to be made in both infrastructure (stadium, practice/academy facilities, scouting, and analytics) and players (highly productive players over the $612,500 salary threshold), and now we will focus on the final preseason roster that Matias Almeyda has been given.

In my last article, we identified that the baseline attacking player in MLS has a specific production value of 0.23 goals + assists per game, and that productive Designated Players and TAM attacking players will produce at least 1.5x that amount, quite often up to 2x that amount. The ideal MLS attacker was found around $1.75M in terms of the balance of salary and typical production, just above the TAM player threshold of $1,612,500. We used this overly-simplistic measurement to determine how well the Quakes’ attackers are producing.

In short, Cristian Espinoza and Chofis combined performed more like $1.5M to $2M Designated Players rather than their lower salaries. New Designated Player Jamiro Monteiro has averaged close to his salary in his time in Philadelphia.

One area we did not look at was the defensive side of the ball. Defense is notoriously difficult to measure in the sport because, usually, the best defensive teams prevent shots from even happening.

The simple statement of fact is that, for the Earthquakes to make the playoffs, they need to either score more goals, concede fewer goals, or ideally do both that will allow them to finish above the playoff line. This article will focus on what needs to happen to accomplish this, and can Matias Almeyda set up the players to do that. A successful coach will enhance the baseline ability of his team to accomplish both things, while an unsuccessful coach will detract from his or her team’s ability and have them punch beneath their weight.

Man-marking: Gimmick or defensive strategy?

Last season, we saw Matias Almeyda at times back away from heavy reliance on his man-marking strategy from 2019 and most of 2020. Of course, this strategy largely comes from his tutelage under Marcelo Bielsa during his time in Argentina.

Bielsa’s Leeds United team famously deploys this strategy in the English Premier League. While Bielsa is a very revered coach, his strategies are not well-adopted by other coaches. The reason for this is the very strong perception that while his brand of football is “exciting”, it can rarely be categorized as “successful.” Also, over the course of a season, his teams experience “Bielsa burnout.”

You are here. pic.twitter.com/6dOrRHIXWk

— John Muller (@johnspacemuller) February 20, 2022

That’s former American Soccer Analysis-analyst-turned-writer-for-The Athletic, John (space) Muller, pointing out what’s happening with Bielsa’s Leeds United right now as they sit in 15th place in the Premier League with the second-worst goal differential in the league with -27. Sound familiar?

I wanted to take a look at the history of these two coaches. I suspect we will find some very similar things about them.

First, let’s take a look at Bielsa’s international coaching record:

Team	Matches	W	D	L	Goals	GA	PPG
Argentina	68	42	15	11	127	64	2.07
Chile	51	28	8	15	69	49	1.80
Total	119	70	23	26	196	113	1.96

That is seriously impressive. It’s a wonder Bielsa is no longer coaching national teams, quite honestly.

Now, let’s take a look at his club record:

Team	Level	Matches	W	D	L	GF	GA	PPG
Leeds United	D1 (England)	63	23	13	27	91	110	1.30
Leeds United	D2 (England)	92	52	17	22	150	85	1.91
LOSC Lille	D1 (France)	13	3	3	7	12	19	0.92
Marseille	D1 (France)	39	21	6	12	76	43	1.77
Athletic Bilbao	D1 (Spain)	76	24	22	30	93	117	1.24
Total	All D1	191	71	44	76	272	289	1.35
Total	All D2	92	52	17	22	150	85	1.91

That’s…not good at a 1st Division level. A 1.35 points-per-game, more losses than wins, and more goals against than goals for. In fact, Bielsa only has one real domestic championship which was the promotion of Leeds United from the English Championship to the Premier League. And the goals against are over 1.5 a game.

Here’s another gem just today from John Muller:

Marcelo Bielsa has thought hard about this sport for 50 years, rigorously catalogued all 31 possible systems of play, and settled on the worst way to play defense.

— John Muller (@johnspacemuller) February 26, 2022

So with that backdrop, we turn our attention to his pupil, Matias Almeyda. He only has a club record to look at. I’m going to separate things a bit more because of his championships, which will help us better evaluate him.

First, let’s look at his cup tournament numbers (All data here is courtesy of Transfermarkt, by the way. You can go check these numbers yourself.):

Cup Type	Matches	W	D	L	GF	GA	PPG
Copa MX, US Open Cup	35	23	3	9	63	51	2.06
Mexican Super Cups	2	1	0	1	2	1	1.50
CONCACAF Champions League	8	6	1	1	18	6	2.38
Liga MX Playoffs, MLS Playoffs, MLS is Back Tournament Knockouts	8	3	2	3	16	17	1.38
Total	53	33	6	14	99	75	1.98

Almeyda was a 2x cup winner in Mexico, a Liga MX champion, and a CONCACAF Champions League champion.

Give the man his props. Those are some seriously good numbers. They match up incredibly well with Bielsa’s international numbers, too. Coaching a national team cannot come fast enough for Matias Almeyda. He’ll obviously be excellent at it. The goals against is a little high at 75 in 53 games played. That’s 1.42 per game for those scoring at home.

Let’s take a look at his club managing record next. I’m going to start here with his 2nd Division record. As we’ll see here in a minute, this is going to be extremely relevant.

League Level / Teams	Matches	W	D	L	GF	GA	PPG
D2 (River Plate and Banfield)	36	18	12	6	60	31	1.83

His record at taking second-division teams and getting them promoted is just absolutely amazing. Excellent work here with both River Plate and Banfield.

Now let’s take a look at his first-division numbers.

Team	Matches	W	D	L	GF	GA	PPG
River Plate	17	5	8	4	25	16	1.35
Banfield	40	14	11	15	53	47	1.33
Chivas Guadalajara	102	35	35	32	124	120	1.37
Total	159	54	54	51	202	183	1.36

Let’s pause here before adding on the Earthquakes. So prior to Almeyda joining the Earthquakes, we can see that he is a career 1.36 PPG coach. That’s including with a team that won CONCACAF Champions League. For anyone not aware, the playoff line in MLS is right about 1.4 PPG pretty consistently. That means his first-division teams are not playoff-level teams. If he can get in the playoffs — GREAT! He’s your man. But the problem is getting there. And that goals against number is 1.15 per game.

Let’s add on the Quakes’ numbers.

Team	Matches	W	D	L	GF	GA	PPG
San Jose Earthquakes	88	29	21	38	127	157	1.23
Total	247	83	72	89	329	340	1.30

Now the goals against is 1.38 per game — very similar to the cup number — and the points-per-game total is a mere 1.3.

Bucking the Trends

So we’ve got an issue here. At 1.38 goals-per-game against (which would be a significant improvement from the 1.78 goal-per-game Almeyda’s Quakes have actually had in San Jose), that comes out to 47 goals against in a 34-game season. That’s a really generous number for me personally, but if I’m Chris Leitch, that’s the baseline number I’m watching very closely to evaluate Almeyda and the defensive side of the ball.

Almeyda’s attack generates 1.33 goals-per-game in first-division play. You may already be ahead of me, but that’s 45 goals for in a 34-game season. The Earthquakes scored 42 in 2021.

So, if you get historical Almeyda, you get 1.3 PPG and a -2 goal differential. The worst goal differential in the playoffs last year was…you guessed it, -2. That was pre-Nashville in the Western Conference, however.

To do better than the last three seasons the Quakes will have to perform over Matias’ career first-division teams, including almost all of his Chivas teams. There is no sneaking into an eighth-place playoff spot in a 12-team conference with a -16 goal differential like in the 2020 pandemic season. This is now a 14-team conference with only seven playoff spots.

To put it differently, the Quakes need to punch above Almeyda’s norms to make the playoffs. The Liga MX method of “everyone makes the playoffs” and then winning there doesn’t work here.

Career Years Incoming?

Fortunately, the Earthquakes have many players entering their prime years in Major League Soccer, and other players playing for a chance to go to Europe. Almeyda only controls so much — the players control a lot more.

It is not unreasonable to expect the best year of their career may be ahead for players like Jeremy Ebobisse, Cristian Espinoza, Cade Cowell, Jackson Yueill, JT Marcinkowski, Nathan, Francisco Calvo, Marcos Lopez, and Tanner Beason.

Benji Kikanovic could well become the next player we connect with a European future.

Jamiro Monteiro is playing with weapons in front of him and a fresh start. Jan Gregus has a lot to prove still.

And Quakes II may give some player we can’t imagine right now the opportunity to shine and make a difference in the first team by mid-season. After all, that’s the purpose of that team.

What you are looking at is a very motivated first team. I spoke with Carlos Yustis from Telemundo on Friday night, and he indicated that while Almeyda’s body language in Wednesday’s pregame press conference wasn’t the best, that’s more indicative of him not liking his media obligations than a lack of motivation for the season and with the players.

(Start video at 34:16 if it does not automatically go there)

A Path Forward

The closer this team can get to 2019 where they were the aggressor in games and outshot opponents by an average of five shots per game, the better it suits the best of Matias Almeyda’s teams and outcomes.

The ground that Monteiro can cover will hopefully allow the Quakes to win the ball higher and start their possessions closer to the goal. In 2021, they started from their deepest starting position under Almeyda and the results suffered from it. One can envision Monteiro, Judson, and Nathan flying all over the pitch to win balls and then progressing the ball quickly. One common thread with Monteiro, Gregus, and Calvo is that they are also above average ball progressors at their position.

The pace up top could not only make for exciting games but give the Quakes an advantage before their opponents can get set in their defensive structure. But if the Quakes languish to move the ball quickly, they will likely face defensive blocks they find difficult to break down and score against.

Season Prediction

It’s difficult to envision the team finishing higher than 5th in the West but also lower than 10th. Mid-table is pretty par-for-the-course for Almeyda teams. Make it into the playoffs and anything can happen as we have seen over-and-over in MLS.

The new talent raises the floor of the team and should at least bring some additional defensive solidity to keep them in games long enough to play for wins and not draws.

The biggest question the team has is its coach and whether he enhances or inhibits their chances. There’s a history to overcome here. Let’s hope it is the former. I believe he has the players from Leitch needed to be able to succeed.