New Earthquakes General Manager Chris Leitch walks out to coach a game in 2017. Photo credit: Aaron Morgan, Quakes Epicenter photographer
Ending months of speculation, although practically a foregone conclusion after Chris Albright was hired by FC Cincinnati, Chris Leitch was finally named the General Manager of the San Jose Earthquakes on Monday afternoon. Leitch succeeds the oft-embattled Jesse Fioranelli after owning the Interim General Manager label prior to the latter’s hire in 2017. Leitch inherits a team that has made the playoffs only twice since 2012 (and both of those years had double-digit negative goal differentials–a statistical anomaly in MLS) and made the playoffs only once in the three years of the Almeyda Era.
But you already know this. What you are wondering is, “Will Chris Leitch succeed in turning the ship around?”, and your second question is probably, “Will John Fisher and the Board of Directors give Leitch the necessary resources to do it?” The answer to the first question is impossible to answer right now, but we can certainly determine the effort it will take to get there. That’s what this article will examine.
The answer to the second is also impossible to answer, but we can see how much “money” it will take to get there. Then we can calibrate both effort and resources. In any project, that covers two of the three parts of the equation — the last one is time. In effect, it raises the question, “Can this be done in 2022?” In this three-part series, we’ll explore each of these three questions.
Out of the starting blocks
By hiring Leitch, the Quakes get someone who can hit the ground running. In fact, Leitch has already landed and been running for a while. Let’s take a quick look at his most critical qualifications:
- Along with Bruno Costa, Leitch has been directly involved in the signing of Earthquakes homegrowns and MLS SuperDraft draft picks since the start of the Fioranelli Era, including Jackson Yueill, Tanner Beason, Cade Cowell, and Benji Kikanovic. He has a known “eye for talent.”
- Leitch was tasked with building the Reno 1868 roster (in effect, playing the General Manager role) and “hiring” former Earthquakes assistant coach Ian Russell to manage the team. That team made the USL Championship playoffs all four seasons, including that league’s version of the Supporters Shield in 2020.
- As Technical Director, Leitch has been responsible, along with Head of Methodology Alex Covelo, for the adaptation of Matias Almeyda’s system to the Quakes Academy and into a system that makes the bridge between the academy, second team, and first team easier for players to adapt to.
- Leitch has no doubt been a big part of the creation of the new U-23 team along with Fioranelli, identifying primarily former Quakes Academy players and local college players for a team that has played several games in it’s first “season”, pending the official MLS Reserve League still to officially be started by MLS in 2022.
- It’s been well-accepted that Leitch assisted Fioranelli with the roster compliance of the first team with MLS’s salary cap mechanisms such as TAM and GAM.
While highly unpopular, including with this writer, Leitch was a key part of the decision to end the Quakes Girls Academy and Youth Club, which were losing around $1M per year for the club. While that decision had a big impact on the direction of youth development in the Bay Area, his involvement shows a business sense for eliminating sunk costs, something that a General Manager needs to know when to do, and, frankly, not even majority owner John Fisher has shown he can do with this team when it comes to some decisions. These are not going to always be popular decisions, but that’s what a General Manager needs to do.
Sunk costs could sink the ship
And sunk costs are something that this team has plenty of. Over the next 30 days, we should have a clear answer on the starting 2022 salary situation for the team, as several players can be either removed from the roster through contract expiration or option declines (or have their deals restructured).
Expected expirations or declines will be primarily for players brought on by Almeyda two or three years ago, including Andy Rios, Daniel Vega, the loan deal for Oswaldo Alanis, and probably Carlos Fierro. It is possible that Chivas will either recall Eduardo “Chofis” Lopez in January, but they seem more likely to push the Quakes to a decision to sign him, although the Quakes can decide to extend his loan deal until July next season and keep the option to sign him. Luciano Abecasis likely has a one-year option and feels 50/50 to return. Possibly the same is true for Eric Remedi and his $450K salary, although he feels more likely to return.
Some questions remain on the Supplemental Roster that don’t feel highly consequential to the immediate future, such as Jacob Akanyirige’s homegrown contract and perhaps Jack Skahan’s initial contract renewal. Matt Bersano is out-of-contract and should probably be re-signed so the Quakes don’t need to find both a backup keeper to replace Vega and a third goalkeeper to handle practice duties.
The Quakes have already spent some GAM in 2022 as a part of the Jeremy Ebobisse deal with Portland.
If Leitch removes Rios, Vega, Alanis, Fierro, and Abecasis from the roster, the Quakes are expected to recover $3.2M in salary spend and cap space, as well as five critical international slots. Chris Wondolowski’s $400K will also come off the books, although Shea Salinas told the broadcast team on Sunday that he’s planning to return. Leitch can do a lot with $3.6M in salary within MLS both for domestic and foreign player moves. While an outside chance, Fisher could choose to add a third DP and use only $650K in cap space to do it, still leaving $3M.
Leitch indicated that he and Almeyda are aligned on the future without providing a firm commitment that Almeyda will be the head coach for next season. Certainly, the club and Fisher have to be leaving room for a winter offer, potentially from a South American national team that misses out on the World Cup.
A Foundation for the Future
What often gets overlooked from the Fioranelli Era is how successful it was at the MLS SuperDraft, signing homegrowns, and establishing the pathway between the academy and the first team. A ton of credit goes to Bruno Costa and his team, and a lot does deservedly go to Fioranelli for the vision to make it happen. This pathway was completely lacking at the time of his arrival, and I think he got the vision part of the equation right.
The creation of a foundation that will go well into the future is now almost fully in-place. So much so that current players may lose roster spots, and we may see some players typically seen on the first team roster move to the second team (read: MLS Reserve League team) next season. We are also left wishing that emerging MLS-level talent like Jon Bell and Danny Musovski, once in this club, were still in the system.
First, let’s look at the critical pieces–practically locked-in starting-level players–that have come from the improvements of the past era:
- JT Marcinkowski
- Jackson Yueill
- Marcos Lopez
- Tanner Beason
- Cade Cowell
- Benji Kikanovic
That’s a solid, young player core, none of whom take up international slots. Marcos Lopez has been playing in Copa America and World Cup Qualifiers and is now in the MLS U22 Initiative. Lopez may be the most likely Earthquake for a sale this off-season. Benji Kikanovic is American but has eligibility for Bosnia and Herzegovina as well for international play.
Paul Marie and Tommy Thompson are bubble starters and are best positioned as flexible depth pieces. I hope we’ll get a good next look at a healthy TomThom next season, as this season was mostly a lost one due to his shoulder injury.
Add this group to Nathan, Cristian Espinoza, Judson, Ebobisse, and possibly Chofis, and you have a good, young starting lineup for 2022. The biggest initial question marks here are at right back and at the 10 for me. If Lopez is sold, then also the left back has to be addressed.
Second, there are young players that are either the future or have the potential to be part of it. I’ve listed them in order of my assessment of their potential for solid contributions for next season’s first team:
- Jack Skahan
- Siad Haji
- Eric Calvillo
- Casey Walls
- Jacob Akanyirige
- Tommy Williamson
- George Asomani
- Gilbert Fuentes
- Matt Bersano (currently a free agent, out-of-contract for 2021-22)
- Emi Ochoa
In fact, the Quakes probably have one of the top three to five cores of young talent in the entire league, even prior to the SuperDraft and other draft mechanisms this offseason. Fioranelli certainly felt that way, and Leitch would probably concur. Perhaps not all of these players remain, but the addition of a reserves team should give some a better look than they are currently getting.
Helping this group, in addition to the aforementioned young core group, seems to be a focus of Chris Wondolowski’s new role of Special Assistant to the General Manager.
In addition, rumors exist that at least one homegrown signing, perhaps more, are on the way this off-season for players called into the USYNT that are not already homegrowns.
Oh, the Galaxy shade…
Roster additions are needed
Without Alanis, a starting-caliber center back is necessary, although Nathan and Beason should be the locked-in starters for 2022. And questions around Chofis and Remedi make me immediately think a DP-level performer is necessary in the central midfield. The wings seem pretty solid with Espinoza, Kikanovic, and Cowell, with Salinas expected to return (he’s eligible for free agency if the club doesn’t pick up his option). Right back feels like the gaping hole it did last off-season (and frankly the one before that). That’s where a Layun-level signing, as was rumored last off-season, would be huge. But really just a TAM-level signing is necessary. The improvement needs to come in the defensive area, but the money needs to flow primarily into the attack.
Regardless, it feels like the level of improvements needed just to get back to the playoff line should be easily made by the salary cap space that ought to be freed up by the early December roster decisions.
Additional investment in Soccer Operations
In his Wednesday press conference, to my question about building out the Soccer Operations side of the house, such as scouting and analytics, Leitch responded: “What we are trying to do is increase our back-office capabilities. I’m very much a general manager that believes this is not a one-man job. And we’re going to need some really strong teammates to ensure we are adding value and sustainability, not only for our first team today, but also into the future…we are looking to make some additions there.” He went on to mention that the team has hired a third-party consulting firm, Twenty First Group, to help jumpstart the analytics area that I requested in my article on the six steps to hiring the right GM on step #6.
In my second and third article in this series, I’m going to shine a light on what brings success to clubs in Major League Soccer and around the world, and what is a sure way for a season to fail. As always, check out my Where Goals Come From series with Carl Carpenter from StatsBomb on American Soccer Analysis dot com for data and clues to what is proven to work consistently.
Conclusion
So to the question of “can he?”, the answer is that most of the core pieces are in place. The Quakes are as well-positioned as any team in terms of their young talent and Supplemental Roster, even with a full off-season ahead of them.
But the Quakes absolutely must be smarter about their spend at the top of the roster. The question of “will he?” depends on the next two articles in the series where we will discuss the question of how important are additional resources from John Fisher and the Board of Directors and also how do this in 2022 without a full year or two of rebuilding. We will examine what is necessary for success in Major League Soccer.
