Cade Cowell and Tommy Thompson celebrate Jackson Yueill’s first goal against DC United on May 1, 2021. Photo credit: Aaron Morgan, Quakes Epicenter.
There’s a lot to commend the San Jose Earthquakes for so far. Six points, an 8-4 goal differential, and a phenomenal couple of games for their 17-year-old forward is if not a full-on best case scenario than at least what Larry David would say is pretty, pretty good. Cade Cowell might end up being Landon Donovan in a mech suit, after all.
To pour a little bit of cold water on the excitement, one should note that San Jose has faced three teams that have opted to press them so far. While the press seems like it ought to work against the Earthquakes spread-out attack, the truth is that San Jose has had the most trouble with teams that come out in a mid-block and counter through them (see: Minnesota United, Seattle Sounders, and Portland Timbers). There is still a lot of soccer left to play, but there are three interesting trends that are worth taking note of before the schedule ramps up in seriousness.
1. What Is Going On With JT Marcinkowski?
James “JT” Marcinkowski has started all three games for the San Jose Earthquakes so far this season. Photo credit: Aaron Morgan, Quakes Epicenter.
San Jose’s homegrown goalkeeper has earned the starting job twice in his tenure here, once from Andrew Tarbell in 2018 and again from Daniel Vega last year. Both times, it was his calm presence in the box and passing ability that set him apart.
Which is why it’s concerning, so far, that he hasn’t been so sharp. Marcinkowski’s gone on a few adventures on set pieces, but it only cost him so far against DC United:
Likewise, his ability to pass between the centerbacks and break lines is probably his best asset. So why is he hitting attackers like De Bruyne against FC Dallas and DCU?
So far, it’s easy to chalk it up to a weird offseason split between the USMNT and San Jose and perhaps some communications issues. But plenty of keepers have been promising up through the U-23 level and plateaued from there. Marcinkowski has a European passport and perhaps eyes on the next level. It’s one thing for players to laud Matias Almeyda for letting them make mistakes early in the season. It’s another thing to…stop making those mistakes against teams that are going to punish you more than DC United will.
2. Flipping Wingers For Fun and Profit
Carlos Fierro controls the ball in the Earthquakes 3-1 win over FC Dallas. Against FC Dallas, Fierro played on the right, and Cristian Espinoza played on the left. Photo credit: Aaron Morgan, Quakes Epicenter.
After the 3-1 victory over Dallas, my colleague Jamon Moore asked why Cristian Espinoza played more on the left while Carlos Fierro stayed on the right. Matias Almeyda basically responded by saying “Good question! Why not?” As someone who wrote a whole offseason piece about the interplay between Chofis Lopez and Espinoza on the right wing, I’m salty.
But it makes sense. For the past two years, the San Jose attack has focused on getting crosses and cutbacks aimed at Chris Wondolowski’s feet, head, shin, whatever. Now that Cade Cowell is leading the line, the Earthquakes are trying to hit more progressive passes through the defense to find the teenager in stride. It’s a good idea in principle: Jamon would tell you that progressive passes lead to higher-quality shots than crosses.
What this also means is that “Espinoza whipping crosses in” is no longer a priority. That can be seen in this table: small sample sizes acknowledged, Espinoza has sent in less than half the crosses per game he did in the past two years. Fierro appears to be doing a bit more, but that’s in part because he didn’t really settle in as a winger until partway through 2020. Shots per game are down, but that’s in part because San Jose hasn’t had one of those stat-stuffer games against checked-out bottom dwellers yet. They play the Galaxy for the first time on May 29.
| Player | Crosses per Game | Crosses per Game | Shots per Game | Shots per Game |
| 2019-2020 | 2021 | 2019-2020 | 2021 | |
| Espinoza | 5.84 | 2.67 | 2.71 | 1.67 |
| Fierro | 2.19 | 2.33 | 0.96 | 0.33 |
When the gameplan doesn’t depend on Espinoza-to-Wondo, you have more options and angles to attack. The geometry of getting the ball to Cowell on the run is easier than that of getting Wondolowski off an opponent’s back shoulder. Almeyda is trusting Fierro, Espinoza, and Lopez to find different ways of doing that. Judging by the seven goals in the past couple of matches, it might be working.
To paraphrase Senator Elizabeth Warren, personnel is strategy. The Earthquakes would be insane to try and sneak Wondo in behind defenses at a trot. Now that Cowell is up there, they can mix things up a bit more and get their young striker better looks.
3. Depth, and Just in Time
Paul Marie looks for a pass against DC United. Marie has started at left back due to an injury to Marcos Lopez and has been a bright spot for the team this season, scoring a goal against Houston. Photo credit: Aaron Morgan, Quakes Epicenter.
At no time in the past two years has San Jose been able to win comfortably with Judson out of the lineup. They just did it twice in a row. Paul Marie has been slinging diagonals, juking Julian Gressell, and put up a Goal of the Week candidate. Lucho Abecasis has been a calming presence who has stepped smoothly into the system. Andy Rios doesn’t thrill most Quakes fans, but he’s a key defensive cog at the top of the formation — either as a forward or an enganche.
This summer is going to demand depth, especially if either Marcinkowski or Cowell join Yueill for the US Men’s National Team (Marcos Lopez will likely miss some matches too. If La Chofis gets called in to the Mexican selection, it’s because he will be the reason San Jose’s at the top of the table). It looks like, for the first time in Almeyda’s tenure, the Earthquakes have it.
Early Gut Check Time
The Earthquakes have had two goals saved by field players the last two games. The latest against DC United by Florian Jungwirth preserved a 3-1 lead. Photo credit: Aaron Morgan, Quakes Epicenter.
The question remains of how the Earthquakes do against the good teams in MLS. Their next stretch, a 4-games-in-15-days visiting Real Salt Lake before hosting Seattle, Portland, and Sporting KC, well, that’s going to answer a lot of questions.
If Marcinkowski can eliminate mistakes, the wingers can keep even packed-in backlines on their heels, and the midfield and fullbacks find a way to share the load over the next two weeks, well, that’s an encouraging sign. Eight points out of these next four matches would be extremely cool and enough to get the league at attention by the time Gregg Berhalter calls in his summer National Team squad(s) in early June.
Reinforcements, we keep on hearing, are on the way. That seems to be assured by the roster moves made even after Colin made that video: if the team is loaning out Tommy Williamson. Gilbert Fuentes, and Casey Walls for USL minutes, it’s because they aren’t expecting the forward, midfielder, nor defender to contribute much this year. And if that’s the case, it’s because there are other forwards, midfielders, and defenders who might be able to contribute more.
So far, San Jose has been fun. The next couple of weeks, we get to find out if they are going to be good.
