San Jose Earthquakes homegrown Nick Lima was sold to Austin FC for $600K in General Allocation Money, plus additional incentives, marking the first player sold by the team in the Jesse Fioranelli era. Photo credit: MLSsoccer.com
“Beane at the Oakland A’s noticed that baseball scouts had all sorts of “sight-based prejudices.” They were suspicious of fat guys or skinny little guys or “short right-handed pitchers,” and they overvalued handsome, strapping athletes of the type that Beane himself had been at age seventeen. Scouts look for players who look the part.”
— Soccernomics: Why England Loses; Why Germany, Spain, and France Win; and Why One Day Japan, Iraq, and the United States Will Become the Kings of the World’s Most Popular Sport by Simon Kuper, Stefan Szymanski
This week the signing of Javier Eduardo López Ramírez, known as “La Chofis”, from Chivas Guadalajara on a one-year loan (with an option to buy or extend another six months) raised a few eyebrows (we’ve been advised the player prefers “Chofis” or “Eduardo”, so we’ll refer to him as “Chofis” for the remainder of the article). There are many reasons for these eyebrows being raised, so let’s call out the elephants in the room right now, shall we?
- Chofis has had an up-and-down career in Guadalajara–mostly down in the judgment of most observers–although his best season was under Earthquakes head coach Matias Almeyda.
- Chofis is known for his escapades off the pitch, for which he has gotten in trouble–suspended, actually, by Chivas–and which many Chivas fans consider the reason for his sometimes-portly frame.
- The Earthquakes have a good bit of available cap space and GAM, which fans expected to be used to obtain one or more Designated Players this offseason, including expectations for a new attacking midfielder (a “10”). Chofis is considered to be the 10 the team is acquiring, but he will not be a DP, and likely won’t even be a TAM player.
When asked on the day of the MLS SuperDraft why “this player at this time”, San Jose general manager Jesse Fioranelli told me this week, “Coming to San Jose represents an important new chapter in his career, and the fact that he has played under Matias, and has done so successfully, means a lot. That being said, we take the disciplinary aspect and the commitment of the player seriously.” He went on to mention that Chofis’ situation has been vetted by the league and with Chivas, and with Chofis himself, in deciding that this was a move that the team could make.
The duration of the loan is a good indicator that the Quakes are dipping their toe into this deal and not jumping in with both feet. But, along with the Nick Lima deal made with MLS expansion club Austin FC earlier this offseason, it could be the representation of something much more: the plan that Jesse Fioranelli revealed last offseason to become a selling club is in full swing.
Learning from history: Brian Clough and Peter Taylor
“Probably nobody in English soccer has ever done a better job of gaming the transfer market than Nottingham Forest’s manager Brian Clough (or “Old Big Head,” as he fondly called himself) and his assistant Peter Taylor. As manager of Forest from 1976 to 1993, Clough managed to turn the provincial club into European champions while turning a profit on the transfer market…”
— Soccernomics: Why England Loses; Why Germany, Spain, and France Win; and Why One Day Japan, Iraq, and the United States Will Become Kings of the World’s Most Popular Sport by Simon Kuper, Stefan Szymanski
Brian Clough was one of English soccer’s greatest goal scorers. In the 1950s and 1960s, he became the fastest player in their top tier to get to 200 goals–all before the age of twenty-seven–before ruining his playing career with a knee injury on Boxing Day in 1962. Three years later he became Hartlepool’s manager after convincing Peter Taylor, a former run-of-the-mill goalkeeper, to join him as his assistant. The two of them had a love-hate relationship over the years, as documented in David Peace’s book The Damned United and also in a film by Tom Hooper.
The duo would win two European Championships in the 1970s with Nottingham Forest with a very low-priced team. Even in the 1970s championships largely came to teams with high payrolls. In fact, Soccernomics demonstrates there is a strong relationship between points in the table and the wage bill (not the transfer costs, we’ll cover this sometime in the future) of teams going back several decades.
So what was their secret? Like Billy Beane of the Oakland A’s became more recently known for, they looked for players that were overlooked by other clubs. Here is a summary of their three player-acquisition rules as documented by Taylor in his memoir, With Clough by Taylor:
- Be as eager to sell good players as to buy them.
- Older players are overrated.
- Buy players with personal problems at a discount (then help them deal with their problems).
Let’s quickly explain #2 and then we’ll focus on the other two. Even in the 1970s, Clough and Taylor understood that most players peaked by a particular age. Since then many studies have demonstrated that age is usually 27, but, in their day, they believed it to be 25. This was particularly true in Clough’s mind about attackers (remember Clough was a top goal-scorer in his playing days), and–despite the ageless wonder that is Chris Wondolowski in MLS–for top European football, this is easily proven true in any statistical linear regression analysis when looking at the age of goal scorers.
Be as eager to sell good players as to buy them
As Taylor wrote in his memoir, “It’s as important in soccer as in the stock market to sell at the right time. A manager should always be looking for signs of disintegration in a winning side and then sell the players responsible before their deterioration is noticed by possible buyers.” Clough and Taylor would tell players that they would replace them “without blinking an eyelid” the moment they could sign a better player.
Certainly, this is not the way Fioranelli has worked as a general manager–quite the opposite is actually true. But, as my colleague Colin Etnire wrote last offseason following his discussion with Fioranelli, there is a “value-centric” approach to players that is a part of his philosophy. Helping the player be successful creates value for the club.
Selling homegrown player Nick Lima to Austin FC is the first sign we have seen of this selling approach. While some might be critical of the $600K in GAM price tag (more if certain incentives are met next season), making Lima a GAM transaction “forces” the Quakes to use that money on acquiring a high-value player, rather than putting it in some other part of the club, as would happen if Lima moved to Europe.
Fioranelli likely sensed that Lima’s stock was starting to drop given his inability to win the starting right-back job from Tommy Thompson until the middle of 2020. Lima mostly struggled in an Almeyda system that requires different things of its right back, such as 1v1 defending. As this StatsBomb radar indicates (Tack/Dribbled Past %), that was a significant weakness of Nick Lima’s.
Certainly we have to expect this is the start of Fioranelli trying to move players. Getting a few million for Jackson Yueill or Cade Cowell, or even a few hundred thousand for left back Marcos Lopez, would be a fantastic return-on-investment indeed, if that happens. But it should only happen when a player is at their peak to receive maximum value in return.
In terms of his remaining time in San Jose, this was Nick Lima’s peak. Going to Austin was also something that Lima and Fioranelli had been discussing for some time, and Lima had a lot of voice in the destination. According to sources in the club, Austin FC was Lima’s preference, and it was also the place for Fioranelli to get the club maximum value for Lima this offseason. In doing this, Fioranelli followed Taylor’s instructions about disintegration and value perfectly.
Buy players with personal problems at a discount
“Finally, Clough and Taylor’s third rule: buy players with personal problems…at a discount. Then help them deal with their problems. Clough, a drinker, and Taylor, a gambler, empathized with troubled players. While negotiating with a new player, they would ask him a stock question, “to which we usually know the answer,” wrote Taylor. It was: “Let’s hear your vice before you sign. Is it women, booze, drugs, or gambling?””
— Soccernomics: Why England Loses; Why Germany, Spain, and France Win; and Why One Day Japan, Iraq, and the United States Will Become Kings of the World’s Most Popular Sport by Simon Kuper, Stefan Szymanski
Back in the 70s, much of a player’s personal life could be hidden. Clubs didn’t know what they were getting in a player’s personal life, so they would need to hire private investigators or ask friends and other players. Most clubs didn’t want to bring in a “problem player”. But Clough and Taylor saw it as an opportunity to “buy low” so they could address the issues and then “sell high”.
Now everything about players is out on the Internet, particularly with a player in a tabloid sports culture like Mexico, and particularly in Mexico’s most popular club. When Chofis was suspended by Chivas, this created some real concerns about his involvement in his teammate’s alleged sexual abuse. It’s one thing to get a player who likes to party, it’s another to get one that gets in trouble partying.
Fioranelli indicated they had been inquiring about Chofis for two years. He was on a shortlist of players that Almeyda is said to have requested immediately after being hired. At that time, Chofis was too expensive for the Quakes. Since it was determined he was not a part of the sexual harassment allegation, his suspension created an opportunity.
“Coming to San Jose represents an important new chapter in his career, and the fact that he has played under Matias, and has done so successfully, means a lot. That being said, we take the disciplinary aspect and the commitment of the player seriously.”
– Jesse Fioranelli after completing the loan deal for Eduardo “La Chofis” Lopez
According to Transfermarkt (which I don’t believe about much of anything, but we don’t have a better place for this type of thing), Chofis’ market value dropped immediately with his suspension. Word on the street is Almeyda called up Chofis and chewed him out for his behavior after the event. What Almeyda and Chofis see as a chance for redemption, Fioranelli must see as a chance for a market opportunity if Chofis performs well. An opportunity to sell a well-performing Chofis could reap a nice return for the Quakes. In Fioranelli’s view, this is the perfect opportunity to create value for both the Quakes and for the player.
Is Chofis the best 10 for the Quakes, though?
San Jose fans have certainly waited a very long time to get the right attacking midfielder, and it’s difficult to see Chofis right now as a player with the level of quality of a Nicolas Lodeiro or a Diego Valeri. Certainly, in his younger years he was projected to have a bigger career. Almeyda still believes he can have it.
But the Earthquakes still have a lot of TAM and GAM they can use, and for fans who have been looking for Fioranelli to deliver that Young DP he intimated last offseason would be arriving this offseason, Chofis likely feels like a letdown or a neutral at best.
But that plan was before Covid-19.
The reality is that the movement of players between countries, and particularly countries the Quakes have recently liked to deal in, has become extremely difficult. Even if there were and are really good intentions of bringing in a particular DP or even Young DP, Covid restrictions in both the US and the player’s country are likely to make such moves problematic.
It is quite possible then that the one-year loan deal is not just for insurance against potential off-the-field issues or even locker room integration issues, but so that the Quakes can get that DP 10 after fans and revenues return. We may learn more soon from a discussion Fioranelli indicated would happen later this offseason.
For now, Chofis is expected to be the “Magnus Eriksson” replacement. Like Eriksson, Chofis is actually more of a left-footed inverted right-winger than an out-and-out 10. Chofis played many more games for Almeyda in the Cristian Espinoza position than he did as a central midfielder. But he has featured as a central attacking midfielder in about a third of his games at Chivas Guadalajara both under Almeyda and under other coaches.
Here’s a comparison of the two players and their progressive passing specifically in the number 10 role.
The reality is, that while Chofis has played about half of the minutes that Eriksson has at the position, they have a lot of similarities. Neither one of them really uses the central Zone 14 space to play through balls to forwards and wingers in behind the defense like a true Argentinian enganche would. Like Magnus, Chofis seems more prone to use a vertical pass in the half-space on the right of the box to his winger or to spray the ball wide, than he is to slip a magical ball in behind to the striker right in front of goal.
No, the bigger problem facing the Quakes is who, besides Cristian Espinoza, Chofis will be able to send a progressive pass to (in case you are wondering why I’m infatuated with progressive passing, 40% of all goals across all leagues come from a progressive pass. More can be found here.)
If we take a look at the last couple of seasons, the primary receivers have been Danny Hoesen, Vako, and Espinoza. Both Hoesen and Vako had the ability to move off the ball to find space for such a pass or open space for others. Without either yet being replaced (with apologies to SuperDraft newcomer Thomas Williamson), it’s difficult to see who is going to get the ball in scoring positions in the box from a vertical threat perspective. It’s certainly not Chris Wondolowski, who is much better finishing off crosses and cutbacks, or Andy Rios (who didn’t make this cut due to only having a few games with Magnus).
Conclusion
With Jesse Fioranelli focused on “creating value”, we should expect to see more of the types of moves we have seen this offseason in the future. It’s easy to see even his types of loan deals as opportunities to gauge the potential value before a player is officially signed. As Fioranelli mentioned on Thursday, the Quakes “aren’t done yet” with their offseason moves. If Chofis is going to provide what the Quakes need in the attack and have a chance at providing a higher value for the club with a potential signing, he’s going to need a lot more help up top than he is currently expected to have. Otherwise, he’s just going to be there to distract people from Cristian Espinoza for a few games.
So what if Chofis might be slightly rotund and has a troubled past? Billy Beane would approve and so would Brian Clough and Peter Taylor. It’s all about the potential to buy low and sell high. In the new world of the San Jose Earthquakes, you call this “creating value”.
