Save emergency use of Cade Cowell, the only current forwards on the 2021 San Jose Earthquakes’ roster are Chris Wondolowski and Andy Rios. Photo credit: ISI Photos / San Jose Earthquakes
Last week, I took about 3,000 words to talk about what Matias Almeyda’s “New San Jose Identity” meant in terms of the Earthquakes’ defense.
To summarize:
- Hold on to the ball to maximize aggressiveness off the ball.
- Use Judson and pressing forwards to give the defense time to reset and minimize transitions.
- Get absolutely shivved on set pieces, time and time again.
I’m willing to be a bit agnostic on the set piece woes. Maybe that was Benji Galindo’s responsibility, maybe the congested schedule took out training time, or maybe it was just bad luck. But the first two are going to be key in concert with the focus of this week’s article: San Jose’s attack.
Key Passes, Continued
In that article last week, I argued that key passes were a key signifier of identity formation. You can read that article if you want the full argument, but as a quick refresher: some key passes have more intrinsic value than others. These two charts show that, generally speaking, cutbacks, throughballs, crosses, and progressive passes have the most value.
This serves as an introduction to the list of San Jose goals from 2020, listed by date with the transition moment and key pass that produced them. Let us all give thanks for Cristian Espinoza.
Espinoza was once again near the top in the league in assists, and he did it this year with every defense keying on him. I genuinely can’t figure out why he hasn’t gotten more acclaim, there aren’t many players in MLS who carry an offense on the wing while putting in as much defensive work as he does.
There are a few other trends worth noting:
- The Earthquakes focus on high-percentage chances. Only three goals came from outside the box, and two of those were wide-open looks.
- Tommy Thompson winning three penalties and a handball in the box is pretty eye-opening. Him and Espinoza have great rapport down the right-hand side and I’m curious to see if they can do it for 90 minutes a game for 30+ games next season.
- Fierro ended up a pretty useful player. 3g/3a for El Guero, compared to 4g/1a for Vako. They’re wildly different players, but Fierro’s ability to put in a good cross with either foot and make late runs into the box served the attack well.
- Marcos Lopez had a couple highlight-reel plays at the end of the season and was really a revelation in 2020. Also, this pass, had it come any other time than at the very end of a very bad game, would’ve raised a few eyebrows:
Cutbacks and Crosses
A lot has been written about San Jose’s attack, both in how fun it is to watch and how rare it is to see at this level. The Earthquakes spread the field with 7 players from touchline to touchline, move the ball to get a defender in a bad position, and then exploit that in a race to the endline until a forward is open in the box.
They don’t really gegenpress or otherwise force turnovers, which is odd for a team based on these 1v1 matchups and without a central chance creator. I think it’s because they themselves don’t want to get too discombobulated chasing the ball, and they trust Yueill to orchestrate more than anything else.
Some people, by which I mean Jamon Moore first and foremost, would criticize this team for settling for crosses at the expense of progressive passes. (Reviewer’s note: 1.8% of crosses end up as a goal in MLS. The trick is to actually get your striker on the end of them before a center back’s head or foot. 95% of teams do not beat these odds for long. Yes, this is Jamon.) To which I’d respond: even though I think key passes generally surpass personnel decisions, the Earthquakes currently have the MLS’ most successful dude ever at getting at the end of crosses and coincidentally can’t win a footrace with any defender in the league. Key passes are central to identity, but the Earthquakes identity is still completely wrapped up in Chris Wondolowski for as long as he wears the shirt.
The last piece of this is, almost certainly, in how they fill out the roster come 2021 — including how they transition away from Chris Wondolowski at the focal point of the attack. Looking at how they formed their attacking identity from October onwards may give some hints as to how they’ll prepare for the upcoming season and the next San Jose identity.
In 2021
Okay so first off, Wondolowski’s back. The odds of him starting every game, however, like he did in the stretch run of 2020 are minimal. For serious this time, San Jose has to consider how to score goals after Wondolowski.
Fortunately, they also have a ton of financial and roster flexibility — as noted by Colin Etnire in his recent piece. This leads to three related, but slightly different, questions:
- What does San Jose need?
- What works in MLS?
- What’s available?
What does San Jose need?
The Earthquakes need somebody besides Chris Wondolowski who can reliably put the ball in the back of the net. And sure, you could convince me that any of Cristian Espinoza, Carlos Fierro, Andy Rios, or even Cade Cowell could score 10+ goals this season, but none of them are a lock to do so.
The two basic ways to do this are to get an extremely talented goal scorer, or to create high-xG goal opportunities. As we’ve seen by how they attack generally, trying to curl around the defense and dunk from inside the box, they may be leaning towards the latter.
When you have Cristian Espinoza, this makes sense. So then the question becomes, how to leverage Espinoza’s skill and find ways to take defenders away from him while getting players at the end of his passes and maintaining a semblance of defensive shape?
My first thought was to spend the offseason looking for the perfect striker to replace Wondolowski, since there is plenty of chance creation between Espinoza and Fierro as well as Rios’ perfectly solid production as an attacking midfielder. But after watching how this team scores, and seeing how MLS teams generally produce, I’m convinced that finding the magical #10 is more important and fits better with what this team is trying to do. Someone who can shift the gravity of the attack is simply way more valuable to a team throughout the course of the season.
The way the midfield was balanced in the second half of 2020, Judson ended up taking a bigger role in buildup as Jackson Yueill ended up a box-to-box regista. It kiiiinda worked, but it put Yueill in the “Michael Bradley at the 2010 World Cup” role of having to do everything in order to paper over other gaps. It’s not really sustainable, especially if he’s looking at USMNT duty in 2021. Looking at the heat maps (where they played from) of Yueill and Judson in their two matches against RSL – a victory at MLS is Back and a victory in October – you see how both get stretched out to keep Rios more central where he’s comfortable, compared with a more flexible Magnus Eriksson:
Facing RSL in July
Facing RSL in October
In order to get the most out of Yueill and keep Judson as a defensive release valve, a more mobile attacking midfielder than either Eriksson or Rios is necessary.
In addition, this team should really prepare to get the most out of Cade Cowell for as long as he’s on the team. Cowell ended up playing a lot of forward at the end of 2020, but this was as much about necessity as anything else: the only two forwards on the roster were starting every match. In the future, on a full roster, he likely belongs out on left wing.
It’s pretty straightforward why: his size and speed make him a greater threat when he can attack a back line then when he has to set that line himself. Cutting in from the left is going to give him the best looks and help him hide his left foot until it develops more. Simply put, Cowell’s best MLS comp is Jordan Morris, another hyper-athletic player who excels by accepting the space made by those around him. Cowell absolutely has to find his finishing shoes, but assuming he does – San Jose could have at age 17 what Seattle didn’t have until Morris was 23.
Finally, huge outlays just don’t always make a difference in MLS. As we’ll get to in the next section, but to foreshadow a bit here: if you can get Josef Martinez or Carlos Vela, yes, absolutely, go do that. But barring that, the difference between Robert Beric and Franco Jara just isn’t make-or-break in a league where the top half go to the playoffs and the playoffs can go any which way. Get a goalscorer, yes. But if you can’t get a historic one, don’t convince yourself the one you have is going to be what he ain’t.
What Works in MLS?
Word got out, at least in the Western Conference, that in order to win you had to get a Latin American striker. Preferably MLS. Call it the Raul Ruidiaz effect. Here is the name and previous location of all playoff strikers from 2020:
The weirdness of 2020 and the fact that I’m not listing Vela nor Rossi as out-and-out forwards belie that there is just not a big difference between a lot of these guys. Get a good athlete with a nose for goal, and you’ll likely be ok!
Rumors have San Jose targeting a young Peruvian-American-Lebanese striker, Matias Succar. He’s big, has a cannon of a left foot, and doesn’t seem adverse to doing the running or screaming into the mixer head-first. With Wondo coming back and Rios able to slot into the midfield or as a forward, having a guy like Succar doesn’t seem all that different from any of the folks listed above.
It’s at attacking midfield where the wheat really gets separated from the chaff. Here’s the same chart as above, but noting the CAM:
There’s really ~6 names that are absolutely terrifying to see in the opposing team sheet, in my opinion, and then a lot of guys who are just fine.
To boil down 2,000 words into 19: If you want the playoffs, spend on a striker. If you want the hardware, spend on an attacking midfielder.
What’s available?
Who, honestly, knows? Everything seems on the table from Latin America, and I’m not in a position to say who is best in like the Chilean league. Guys with American passports like Matko Miljevic or Joel Sonora are more likely to be projects – even if they’re interesting ones. Pablo Aranguiz has come up, and he’s bounced around Chile since featuring for FC Dallas in a handful of matches. Still just 23, he profiles more as someone to fit between Jackson Yueill and Eric Calvillo on the depth chart than an out-and-out attacker.
It might be more exciting, if not particularly realistic, to talk up something like Atalanta’s Papu Gomez coming stateside. He looks good in black and blue after all. Or maybe Orbelin Pineda, sick of playing for truly cursed Cruz Azul and looking to link back up with Almeyda, could be convinced to come north and be handed the reins.
I can see the frustration in knowing that there’s this #10-shaped hole in the team sheet, and having no idea who might best fit it.
San Jose has tried to fit this since Matias Perez Garcia was signed back in 2016, all to no avail. Simon Dawkins and Vako weren’t the right choices, in hindsight. Magnus was eventually slammed into something like a round hole, but he was always a square peg. Whether you think that San Jose can find the solution this offseason probably coincides with your trust level in the Jesse Fioranelli/Matias Almeyda project as a whole. This project, and this “San Jose Identity” fits into it, is ultimately bigger than finding the right #10 or the perfect understudy for Chris Wondolowski. And that’s the subject of the next and last part of this series.
