Photo credit: mlssoccer.com staff from MLS is Back tournament
It’s honestly a baffling question: how did a team that looked as awful as these 2020 San Jose Earthquakes did in their first two games, stealing a lucky point against Toronto before being humiliated by Minnesota, both at home, turn into a (bit of a) juggernaut?
We kicked around a few possible explanations:
- Using the break to improve Almeyda’s system. With a few months off between games, and the opportunity to train intensively, you might imagine that the coaches coaxed improvement through greater tactical familiarity or physical preparation. But the poor first two matches were also after an extended break with intensive training, and largely the same squad has been with Almeyda for a year. Also, the hallmark stats of Almeyda’s style (lots of passes with high accuracy in possession, allowing very few passes and low accuracy) are more or less the same. I just don’t buy it.
- Dumb Luck. When results dramatically turn around, sometimes it’s as simple as a change in luck. But while the Quakes were perhaps hard done by how badly they lost to Minnesota, they can’t exactly complain about losing, and they were incredibly lucky to snag a point against Toronto. In contrast, since the break, they’ve performed right about in line with expectations. Small sample sizes, yes, but it doesn’t appear anything dramatic happened here.
- Quality of opponent. The first two teams the Quakes faced were good: they both remain undefeated, and in the top 2 of their respective conferences in the early going. After the break, you have the defending MLS champs, who admittedly look frail, paired with a rebuilding Chicago and a listless Vancouver. There’s no doubt that means overall the quality of opponent declined, but I don’t think it’s enough to justify the dramatic improvement in play quality that was obvious to the naked eye.
To me, as you might have guessed by this article, the the best answer is none of those things. Judson, San Jose’s destroyer in midfield, was injured in preseason and didn’t contribute in the first two games. Healthy after the long layoff, he anchored the Quakes, and the results speak for themselves. Judson’s return is the answer, and it’s as simple as that.
I’ve been a long-time admirer of the Brazilian, whom Quakes GM Jesse Fioranelli believes would be a locked-in starter for the USMNT if he had an American passport. I can’t say enough about his athleticism, commitment, physicality, and tactical discipline. He’s truly excellent, and any team in MLS would be made better by a player like him returning to the lineup.
The most obvious, and most direct effect, is introducing a genuine ball-winning defensive midfielder to the pivot rather than Yueill trying to cover that role and Eriksson playing badly out of position next to him. Here is the map of defensive actions before (left) and after (right) Judson returned to the lineup:
Charts: @jmoorequakes, Data: @AnalysisEvolved
Of course, the “after” is one more game than “before,” so don’t focus so much on the volume of actions rather than their location. Judson truly covers sideline-to-sideline, and engages much higher up the field, which enables San Jose to stay on the front foot and break up counters before they become truly dangerous.
Another way to understand Judson’s contribution is to look at the passing charts of the opponent, to see how effectively they can connect, and where. Take at look at the “before” picture (left), against Toronto, which QE writer Asher Kohn like “a big arrow pointed toward where a defensive midfielder should be.” Against Chicago (right), in contrast, there were no effective “lanes” of attack, with the middle paths looking particularly broken:
@jmoorequakes, Concept: @etmckinley, Data: @AnalysisEvolved
You’ll also notice that Toronto was able to possess the ball much higher up the pitch than Chicago, who only had substitute Fabian Herbers, on in the late game when they were chasing a goal, receiving the ball in any sort of advanced position.
But it’s not just the injection of defensive quality he provides into the lineup: his reentry dramatically impacted several other players on the field via knock-on effects. Take a look at the Quakes passing charts against Toronto (left) and against Seattle (right):
Charts: @jmoorequakes, Concept: @etmckinley, Data: @AnalysisEvolved
Jackson Yueill attempted to cover Judson’s role, and of course wasn’t nearly as good at it, with his more-limited athleticism and aggression. But it also prevented Yueill from doing what he does best: pinging the ball around from the middle of the park to find spaces. Notice how much higher his average position in the pitch was between the two games.
Of course there’s Magnus Eriksson, who might be a bit of a square peg in a round hole in any system, but a player who I’ve long defended as having strong, if fairly specific, positive attributes. Before Judson, he was miscast as a member of the double pivot, yet occupied almost exactly the same spaces he would ordinarily, relative to the formation, as you can see above. After Judson, his free-floating, pressing number 10 role was opened up, and his lack of pace in the pivot no longer exposed San Jose’s older back line.
In that exact same number 10 space, pre-Judson, was Vako, clogging the middle, and not playing in his more natural role on the wing. A dribbler to his core, Vako ought to be receiving the ball wide and drawing the defense toward him with his dribbling threat. Through the middle, he was simply too easy to close down, and didn’t move defenders away from other Quakes attackers.
Finally, Danny Hoesen, the man who officially “replaced” Judson in the lineup, was thrown into his awkward “wide left” role, where he offered mediocre defensive support (as you might expect from a striker) and a serious inability to get involved in the game. Vako, who naturally cuts in, is a much better fit for Nick Lima’s game, which is racing down the line, and the presence of a genuine defensive mid allows Lima to get higher up the pitch.
Take all of this together, and you’re left to conclude that Judson is both a wonderful player and a linchpin in Almeyda’s style of play. But you’re also left with a much more troubling conclusion: that if Judson isn’t in the lineup, Almeyda doesn’t appear to be able to cover for him given the current squad. They look like a bottom-tier MLS team without him, but a frisky mid-table side with him.
The only other true defensive midfielder, Luis Felipe, is a significant step down from him in quality, and more suited to a traditional zonal pivot role than the harrying man-marking defensive mid. Of course, you can scheme around his absence, and I probably would’ve made different choices than Almeyda did, but it points to a hole in the squad: they’ll need another guy to fill Judson’s boots whenever he’s out injured, suspended, or rotated. For a guy who runs himself into the ground as he does, you’d imagine one of those situations would come up sooner rather than later.
For now, we’ll enjoy the stability and cover he brings to the team, and see if the effect persists. Because if it doesn’t, San Jose will really have to wait for the offseason to make any meaningful improvements.
