The 2019 season started horrifically, ascended magnificently, and sputtered pathetically at the end. Regardless of how much credit or blame you assign Matías Almeyda for each of those things, it’s certainly put San Jose Earthquakes fans in a place of greater optimism going into 2020 than in any year in recent memory.
Almeyda raised some eyebrows by suggesting that he was expecting a similar squad to report to training camp next year, and wasn’t asking for “millions and millions” to be invested. I think he’s right on the first, but in order for that to happen, he might actually be wrong about the second. And unlike many Quakes fans, I don’t see that as necessarily a reason to be concerned, since the team was actually pretty good last year, as I wrote about a few days ago.
Two huge caveats to any of my predictions: both all the ways in which MLS contracts are less transparent than other American sports (so we have no idea how many years people have left) as well as the upcoming CBA negotiations, which could dramatically change the rules around the salary cap. I personally think it’s fairly likely that TAM will be eliminated in favor of a greatly expanded “hard” cap, for example. I would also be shocked if the minimum salary was not raised.
My salary spreadsheet, which attempts to account for who is likely to be out of contract is here. Without further ado, what I expect to see next:
Let’s start with the easy stuff
- Likely under contract next year (or with a team option):
- Senior players (12): Magnus Eriksson, Daniel Vega, Nick Lima, Carlos Fierro, Andy Rios, Guram Kashia, Danny Hoesen, Marcos Lopez, Eric Calvillo, JT Marcinkowski, Vako, Jackson Yueill
- Non-senior players (4): Gilbert Fuentes, Jacob Akanyirige, Cade Cowell, Siad Haji
- Out of contract:
- Judson has a purchase option on his loan that will almost certainly be exercised
- The club has already confirmed they’ve offered Wondo a 1-year contract and the Quakes legend said that’s something he wants to get done
- Shea Salinas is also out of contract, and that’s another one where the club and player both look motivated to keep him in San Jose, at least for a year. He was a productive squad player despite his age, bagging a career-high 6 goals and being immensely versatile both as a starter and a sub.
- As good as gone
- Francois Affolter
- Andrew Tarbell
- Anibal Godoy (who was already traded, but will leave officially in the offseason)
- Non-senior players
- Probably gone: Jimmy Ockford, Kevin Partida
- Might stick around: Matt Bersano, Paul Marie, Luis Felipe
Things to work on
- Cristian Espinoza’s loan is about to expire, with no option to purchase, and he still has 18 months left on his contract at Villareal. Ironically, Almeyda’s ability to get such an excellent season out of him makes it less likely that he’ll return, since it might price the Quakes out of a move, but that’s something you accept when a La Liga team is willing to send you a highly touted prospect on a heavily subsidized salary. Both the club and the player want him to stay in San Jose, but in order to do so, they’ll have to sort out a deal that will undoubtably involve a club record transfer fee, and in all likelihood, either the most expensive or second most expensive contract ever handed out to a player. When people beg for a “big DP signing,” this is it.
- Florian Jungwirth is likely out of contract, but had a fantastic season at CB, and definitely seems like an important guy for the locker room. I haven’t heard any noise about him leaving, and I bet the club will want him back, even though he’s in his 30s. That being said, given his German origin and shorter tenure than Salinas, he isn’t quite as much of a sure thing to return, and will have a bit of leverage. I bet the club will do what it takes to bring him back, but it’s something to watch.
- Nick Lima. He’s under contract, so that’s not the issue. The issue is that he clearly never gelled with Almeyda personally nor his system. He looked abject this season after 2 very strong years that established him in the USMNT reckoning. He’s already done a trial in Germany, and appears to be interested in testing the waters abroad. The club has him on a long term deal, giving them leverage, but it seems like the best move for both sides is to transfer him and pocket the fee. That has an additional advantage in that MLS rules allow the Quakes to keep a much larger percentage of the fee since he’s a homegrown player. If they can’t find a good bidder, or both sides are genuinely interested in making it work, I can see a world in which he stays, but clearly something has to give here. I hope both sides choose the latter, because I’ve loved rooting for the Castro Valley kid in black and blue.
- Jackson Yueill. It’ll be his fourth year since being drafted, which is usually the last year of a rookie contract, be it via option or guarantee. Either way, however, that means he’s entering his last 12 months of team control, after which he could leave on a free if leaving MLS, which after his stellar 2019 season and USMNT caps, is a serious possibility. That means the team has to open the checkbook and give him a (major) pay raise. He’s under $200k/year right now, which is a screaming deal for a player of his level of production. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his next deal in the $500k/year range. That’s worth it to protect one of the club’s most valuable assets, both on the field and in the transfer market.
- Harold Cummings just finished his option year, which means the team has a decision to make about whether to bring him back. He’s a decent player, and $320k/yr (his current salary package) is sizable but not insane for a decent 3rd CB in MLS. He currently takes up one of those pesky international slots, but after three years in the country he might well be close to a green card. He’s definitely behind Guram Kashia in the pecking order, but the club will have decisions to make about their CB position generally, given its average age and occasional frailty. I could see the club going either way on him. I personally would move on and attempt to upgrade.
- I’m actually not sure what Tommy Thompson’s contract status is. He signed an extension in 2017, and by all accounts he feels very committed to the club, in addition to having a breakout year at right back. More than three guaranteed years would’ve been surprising for that deal, so 2020 will probably be an option year, although I don’t have any way of knowing. The difference with Yueill is that I think him leaving for abroad is less likely, so the team will have more leverage, since MLS rules prevent him from becoming a true free agent if he stays in the league. That makes it slightly less urgent, but he may be another guy the club want to tie down to a long term deal, with a pay bump, reflecting the fact he’s now a solid starter.
Looking beyond the current roster
If the club does indeed spend the massive amount it’ll need to in order to retain Espinoza, there won’t be a huge amount of money left over. That’s probably why Almeyda cautioned fans not to expect too many big new faces. And remember, the club did just lay out a huge amount of money on Fierro and Rios just this summer, no doubt with an eye to 2020. That being said, there probably will be at least some new faces.
There are two places I think need investment, even in a world where the spending will be modest: central midfield and center back. The club has an excellent central midfield pairing (Judson/Yueill), but especially with Godoy gone, no natural 3rd option that you’d feel good about. Most clubs have at least a decent 3rd option, and frequently a 4th. They’ll need to go out and spend a bit of money to get another guy for the rotation, especially if they want to be able to rotate more effectively than Almeyda did in 2019.
Center-back is a place for a potential upgrade, but would only really make sense if Cummings left. If he did, and ownership was willing to push the boat out a bit, I’d love to see them invest in a younger upgrade on Guram Kashia to pair with Flo Jungwirth, pushing the Georgian to the 3rd spot in the rotation. Almeyda’s system puts CBs on an island more than most, and demands more of them in terms of mobility and playing the ball, which would make a high-end CB a worthwhile investment.
Every year also has potential addition options via the draft, USL promotions, and homegrowns, but none of those are likely to yield starters. They’ll fill out the roster with prospects, who lately have found it hard to see the first team. The draft slot this year will be mediocre, so I don’t expect anything useful to come of it. Reno has a few guys I like (Duke Lacroix at LB, forward Luis Paradela, amongst others) but I don’t know how likely any of them are to make the leap.
For homegrowns, there are a few options, but I don’t know how many make sense at this juncture. J.J. Foe-Nuphaus and CJ Grey are both Cal defenders that are decent prospects but not sure-fire future pros. Drake Callender (Cal) and Remi Prieur (SMC) are both well-regarded college keepers, but the Quakes have a bit of a keeper overload at the moment. I’d be surprised if none of the above were pulled into the organization, but it’s possible. I no longer keep track of the academy players still in high school, so it’s also possible that one of them is a standout who will get a contract as a teenager, like Fuentes, Akanyirige, and Cowell.
Those moves described above put this roster well above the existing cap, but that might not matter in the new CBA environment.
A personal plea to Matias Almeyda
I want a bit of a youth movement in 2020. JT Marcinkowski, the most talented American keeper under the age of 23, who is likely to be between the sticks for his country at the Olympics should they qualify for it, and is a homegrown to boot, was blocked from the first team by Daniel Vega this season. Vega was fine, with both spectacular saves and spectacular errors, but Marcinkowski is better, particularly with his feet. He’s also more than a decade younger. This is the time to turn the keys over, and retain Vega as the veteran backup/mentor.
The other two guys I’m worried about are Eric Calvillo and Siad Haji. They’re entering an age (22 and 20, respectively) where you really want them playing games. They’re also both low-cost American players, who have some real technical quality that isn’t all that common in the league. I would love to see them succeed. But neither got any meaningful time with the first team, nor did either of them actually play all that much in Reno (Haji 15 appearances, Calvillo just 6). Bringing in guys like Carlos Fierro on humungous wages, who are past the age where they have remaining potential, and still don’t look like they’re good enough to be starters in the league, blocking the path to playing time for Haji and Calvillo, is just heartbreaking to me.
There are other young players around, but most of them are either unlikely to possess MLS-starter quality (Luis Felipe, Kevin Partida) or are so young that they don’t need professional game time for their development (Fuentes, Akanyirige, Cowell). My broader point is that a robust pipeline, from Academy to USL to young players with the senior team to the starting lineup, is something that helps the pipeline produce more talent, and undoubtably is something the fans love rooting for, even when results aren’t perfect.
Oh yeah, and this team is getting incredibly old (senior roster currently will have an average age of 28.6 next season). Let’s get that next chapter going.
