Advanced stats can’t tell us as much about individual players, since each player’s results depend on the collective, and vary dramatically depending on position. But we can learn a bit about how well they flourished within a particular system, and compliment it with more basic “counting” stats to show style of play.
The short answer is almost everyone got better from 2019, with one humungous exception. Here are some thoughts, with all stats per 96 minutes unless noted otherwise:
- I liked Magnus Eriksson‘s performances in 2018, which put me in a very lonely group amongst Quakes fans. My theory was that he was a very good vertical passer and chance creator, and that with a better team around him, that creativity would be rewarded. In 2019, it was: he led the team in Key Passes (3.23), was 3rd in xA (0.25), tops in fouls won amongst the regulars (2.15), and 3rd amongst in deep creation (0.81 xB). He’s also making $450k/year, which is quite a good value for those types of statistics if you look around the league. I hear people arguing that SJ should replace him with an “elite” number 10, but I doubt that they could find one better for anything less than many multiples of what he makes, especially considering his defensive contribution.
- Jackson Yueill absolutely improved defensively this season. He was noticeably bulkier than when drafted, more mobile, and phenomenally fit. However, in terms of defensive actions, wasn’t actually very productive: he managed just 1.3 tackles and 0.4 interceptions per 96, way behind any other central midfielder, and more in line with the strikers and wingers. Of course, defensive actions are not the only thing that reflects a central midfielder’s contributions off the ball, but it signals he still has room to improve in that area, or at the very least, the need to place him in a tactical role that doesn’t rely on it. That may well be worth it, though, given how insanely good he is at ball retention and buildup. He had the best passing performance compared to xPassing of any midfielder on the team, completed 87.4% of his passes overall (at a team-leading volume of 69.1 per 96) and an astounding 0.93 xB that led the regulars. He also only lost the ball roughly twice per game, which is remarkable given the number of touches he was taking. He’s a legitimate budding star, and the team would do well to lock him down for the future.
- Nick Lima had a bad season, period. His xB was second worst among regulars, with only center-back Harold Cummings below him, and he took notable steps back from 2018 in successful dribbles and fouls won, all of which means he was less of a creative force offensively. Defensively, he recorded by far the fewest tackles and interceptions among the main three fullbacks, and limped to a 6.56 season rating on WhoScored after recording a strong 6.95 in 2018. While most people would point to starting on the left being a factor, his rating was actually worse (a miserable 6.09) in games he started on the right. He simply doesn’t appear to fit Almeyda’s system, and he was more or less the only player to get worse under his leadership. His primary competition on the left, Marcos Lopez, had some serious issues too, but was actually much more productive on the stats, and given that he’s just 19 and came up as a winger, presumably has more room to grow.
- Losing Cristian Espinoza would be awful. He was an elite chance creator, amassing an impressive (and second in the league) 0.38 xA and finishing second on the team in dribbles (2.66) and Key Passes (2.93). On the other hand, he was last among Quakes attacking midfielders and forwards in xG, indicating he isn’t a major goal-scoring threat. For my money? Who cares. Final-third creators are worth their weight in gold. He’ll be extremely expensive to bring back, but the club simply has to try.
- Wondo racked up an impressive 0.65 xG per 96 minutes, the second best number of his career (only barely behind his magnum opus 2012 season). That’s undoubtedly due to a better team and more productive scheme around him, but don’t discount the value of his runs and positioning in getting to that number. He finished more or less at the expected rate. Either way, it doesn’t portend a huge collapse in performance for his upcoming (and likely final) age-37 season. Pay the man.
- Vako went from barely playable to legitimate star. His successful dribbles soared from 2.74 to a league-leading 4.25. Don’t discount the impact on an entire defense of a single player who can create his own offense like that. He also bagged 8 goals and 5 assists, which more or less matches his xG and xA. He definitely could still improve his fitness to contribute throughout the 90, but he finally justified his price tag.
- I didn’t like the Carlos Fierro and Andy Rios transactions the moment I saw them, and I positively hated them when I saw the salary report showing what sort of wages they were on. Believe it or not, they were the 3rd and 4th best-paid players on the team last year. So it’s worth looking at the stats they put up in limited minutes to see if we think it’s likely they’ll justify their cost next year:
- Rios was the one I hated more simply because he was already in his 30s and didn’t appear to represent an upgrade at any one position. However, after looking through the stats, I have to concede there are some really promising signs in there. Caveating that the sample size is very small, and that he was generally playing in situations where the team was pushing forward, he managed a staggering 5.82 fouls won, 3.08 key passes, 2.05 dribbles, 85.5% passing, 0.52 xG+xA, and a weirdly strong defensive contribution with 2.05 tackles and 1.03 interceptions. He also won more aerial duels (1.71) than any non-defender. If he’s even remotely close to that, that’s a huge deal, and I’ll happily stand corrected.
- Fierro, on the other hand, put up much more modest stats in similar time, lower in literally every category I just named. Particularly concerning is the anemic 0.84 Key Passes and 76.8% passing rate, with a lukewarm 0.36 xG+xA that would’ve rated last among all Quakes attacking players. I would say that the small sample size means we shouldn’t hold it against him, but those stats very much matched up with the eye test, where he appeared to be a pacy player with limited quality. Especially considering the transfer fee required to get him, he’ll need to take a major step forward next year to justify his price, and it’s worth wondering if a 25 year old winger really has all that much potential left to fulfill.
- Honestly, defensive players just aren’t that interesting on statistical review, since we don’t have stats that really do a good job speaking to their value. Flo and Kashia were productive in defensive actions (more than 2 tackles, interceptions, and aerial duels won per game each), but I do want to highlight the insane productivity of Judson, who won 4.4 tackles (four point four!) per 96. I love that guy. He’s such a perfect partner in terms of skillset to Yueill, and fits Almeyda’s system. He also managed a tidy 88.1% passing rate, although of course his pass selection was quite conservative.
- Goalkeeper statistics are awful and I don’t put any stock in them. Vega was solid this year, but there’s no reason not to anoint JT Marcinkowski the club’s long-term starter next year.
