Just like birthdays, the semi-annual holiday known as the MLS Players Association salary guide release tends to get less exciting every year, with certain notable exceptions. That said, I’m still a roster nerd. As always, my contract spreadsheet lives here. Here are some of my quick takes on the latest release:
Almeyda’s imports mostly seem reasonable
Cristian Espinoza ($550k), Marcos Lopez ($388k), Judson ($305k), Daniel Vega ($210k)
Judson, Espinoza, and Lopez all came in on TAM deals, so it’s unsurprising to see their salaries just above or below the TAM threshold. Lopez is making a fair bit of money for an unproven 19 year old, but given that he’s made his senior debut for a strong Peru side and is considered one of the better youth prospects on the continent, it’s a small price to pay given that they practically stole him with a tiny transfer fee (around $100k). Espinoza’s actual salary is much higher than the one quoted, meaning Villareal is subsidizing his loan, which makes this brilliant business, especially given how impactful he’s been since arriving. Judson’s is the one from this group that is most questionable, given that a loan fee would have to be involved on top of the salary to make TAM eligible, and he’s had the least on-field impact. I do actually still like his game, and think he’s a good fit for Almeyda, but right now this seems like a mediocre move given the economics.
Vega? It’s quite a bit to pay a guy you’re bringing up from USL, but not bad for a starting keeper. But we might as well do an entire section on the net-minders, which leads me to…
The goalkeeper situation is a Hieronymus Bosch painting. That’s not meant to be a compliment.
Andrew Tarbell ($235k), Daniel Vega ($210k), JT Marcinkowski ($147k), Matt Bersano ($72k)
None of these contracts are, in a vacuum, from the perspective of the time they were signed, necessarily all that bad. In total, however, and given what we know today, they’ve created a mess where the team is using 4 roster spots (and one international slot) and paying three different keepers starter-level salaries in exchange for fairly mediocre performance from the position.
Daniel Vega was brought in to be the starter (until JT was ready) and veteran presence, as well as a bilingual leader whom Almeyda trusted. All of that is good. It still feels like they weren’t bidding against anyone at all when they offered him $210k a year, more than any keeper on the team made last year. In exchange, the team has gotten a few highlight saves, a few epic lowlight howlers, and only passable starting keeping at this level. I don’t hate it, though.
The Andrew Tarbell situation is just a bummer. The team was heavily criticized (including by me) for taking him in the draft when the squad didn’t need a keeper, but opinion turned quickly after it became clear what his upside looked like and we began hearing reports that the Quakes were hanging up on calls fielded amongst immense trade interest. He won the job late in 2017 and looked like an emerging force, only to disintegrate in 2018. He may be literally worthless in trade value now, after being one of the hottest commodities only a bit more than a year ago. Oddly, Tarbell’s option-year salary spiked dramatically from last year ($235k versus $102k), which makes it even more of a bummer that it was exercised. Based on last year’s options/declines release, it appears it was a contractual appearances trigger rather than a discretionary option. I don’t know what the club’s plan is, I personally would’ve given him a run in Reno to rebuild confidence and trade value, but perhaps they’re just resigned to running out his contract. I can’t see him on the team next year.
Marcinkowski’s contract is by far the best of them, but has gotten no senior game time after winning the position at the end of the last year, as well as being the best prospect in the US system for his age group. I totally accept the superiority of the soccer knowledge of the coaching staff, but I sure hope they know what they’re doing with his development here. I can see the argument for not exposing him to a defense in transition (imagine how confidence-crushing those NYRB and LAFC games would’ve been) but I think Quakes fans have a right to be concerned that a guy who could well start for the national team one day, and may well move to Europe, isn’t being utilized in year 2 of his pro career. Having 4 keepers, including two on starting-level contracts, presents a real impediment here.
Oh yeah, and you also have Matt Bersano, who is a very solid backup on a very solid contract. Again, that’s great on its own. But I can’t tell you how infuriating I find all this as a roster-management pedant: even if you didn’t have a young prospect to develop, there’s literally no excuse for carrying 4 keepers, let alone paying three of them six-figures. Only a few teams in the league do the former, only one does the latter (Portland, who spends quite a lot less on them collectively), and precisely zero do both. You’re wasting a roster slot that could, at very worst, be used to stash a prospect, or at best, add to the team’s depth. Given the number of “dead weight” players already on the payroll (see next section) that’s even more inexcusable. They’ve basically given up on 5 senior roster spots, including one that is entirely free. That just doesn’t make sense to me. This team isn’t good enough to leave spots open.
There are some clear exits on the horizon
Valeri Qazaishvili ($1.6M), Guram Kashia ($590k), Francois Affolter ($273k)
Vako isn’t a bad player. He’s really not. His US Open Cup performance showed what he can do. But he’s exactly the wrong player for Almeyda’s system (work yourself into the ground defensively, get the ball out of your feet quickly, play vertically), and even if he were the right guy, $1.6M/year plus the transfer fee still feels rich for his overall talent level. In fact, it might be hard to get any other club on earth to take that on. Either way, he’s clearly surplus to requirements, and given the huge salary hold he puts on the roster, he needs to be moved on.
Ditto Kashia and Affolter, who make quite a lot of money between them, and neither appear to be either particularly well suited to Almeyda’s scheme nor good enough to justify their respective salaries. Getting rid of those two would free up a fair bit of salary space, as well as two roster spots and one international spot.
Otherwise everyone looks about right (or better!) on this roster. There’s little room to navigate on the top end of the roster until those big exits occur, since the cap situation appears to me to be fairly tight, but with one perfectly open roster slot, and a lot of different ways to easily open a few more, I’d hope that they’d look to bring in some younger guys at the bottom of the roster regardless.
Assorted Other Thoughts
- In most major American sports, draft slots come with specified salary ranges now, but not MLS. That’s why you get the interesting note that Siad Haji, drafted two years after Jackson Yueill, and 4 slots higher, is making just a bit over half of what Yueill made his rookie season. I loved his potential last fall when he was playing for VCU, and I like it even more now. $104k is a steal for the 19-year-old.
- Yueill’s guaranteed comp this year is actually down $5k on last year, which basically never happens without a contractual change. I wonder if that’s just a data error? Either way, what a bargain.
- Cade Cowell was a bit of a surprise in that he came in as a homegrown right about the minimum senior salary. I would’ve assumed he was about 30-40% higher, with a deal that matched the one given to Gilbert Fuentes, given the amount of potential the club believes he has. Both of those guys could well be sold off to Europe before they ever really make the first team rotation.
- Based on my calculations, the ownership will have had to spend more than $1 million out of pocket on discretionary TAM and the Joel Qwiberg buyout alone (doesn’t include DP spending), which in my opinion is fairly strong evidence that “the club isn’t willing to spend” narrative is overblown.
