A Statement of Intent

My word.

Matias Almeyda is a massive, massive hire for the San Jose Earthquakes, no ifs ands or buts about it. All coaches have weaknesses and failures, but Almeyda’s are at a level so far above where the Quakes are right now that they aren’t worth dwelling on. If they ever become relevant, it’s only because San Jose as a franchise has become relevant again, and the internal rot somehow cured.

We’re talking about a guy who has started in a World Cup for Argentina, then won league, cup, and continental titles managing in Mexico within the last two years. There are genuine portions of the El Tri fanbase that are disappointed he wasn’t named their manager, and Chivas fans were sad to see him go. That’s not only a resume far beyond anything we’ve seen in San Jose before: it would actually be a strong hire for just about any club in the league with the possible exceptions of Atlanta United or NYCFC.

The first thing worth noting is the man Almeyda himself. He’s just 44 years old, so he has room to grow as a coach, but he already has quite a lot to recommend him. In his playing career, aside from success in his native Argentina, he spent a year in Spain and seven in Italy, even winning a Scudetto (Italian league title) and a UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup (predecessor to the Europa League) in that time. He played for the Albicelestes in two World Cups and an Olympic Games. As a player, he was known for his work ethic (the Italians called him Il Trattorino: The Tractor) and leadership. His first managerial post was the unenviable task of navigating the potentially toxic situation of boyhood club River Plate’s first ever relegation, successfully guiding them back to the top flight with a B division title. He repeated the feat with Banfield shortly thereafter, and was scooped up by Mexican superclub Chivas de Guadalajara in 2015, promising to “awaken the giant” after a harrowing 9-year trophyless spell. He delivered a Copa MX within two months of his arrival. He added a Copa-Liga double in the spring of 2017 (when he was named the top manager in Liga MX) and a stirring run to the CONCACAF Champions League title in 2018. In six games against MLS’s best in that competition, his side only conceded four goals.

Of course, the flip side of that story is that while grittily winning their CCL title, they were fending off relegation in the domestic league. The performances have been uneven, both in terms of on-field product and results, but it’s worth keeping in mind that he survived the pressure-cooker of Chivas for three full seasons, and somehow ended on good terms with the fanbase despite those ebbs and flows. Even with that asterisk, I still rate him: he’s generally put out organized teams, he turned around team culture at multiple stops, and would unquestionably command the respect of the locker room both for his playing and managing careers. Better yet, for San Jose, he has connections to Latin American football that all the best MLS sides seem to regard as the best path toward closing the gap with their European peers. And it never hurts to have a Spanish-speaker with Mexican connections to re-establish the relationship between the Quakes and its large Latino fanbase.

The second, and arguably most important thing to note about the hire is it signals a dramatic shift in tack from the ownership in San Jose, and an implicit recognition by that ownership that things were so rotten that dramatic shifts were necessary. That’s important, in and of itself. While spending on players has mostly stayed right in the middle of the MLS pack ever since Avaya Stadium opened, the coaches weren’t getting paid at a level commensurate with MLS’s global peers. Mikael Stahre was on $400,000 a year, and Dom Kinnear was in that same general price range. While that will no doubt get you a serviceable MLS coach, that won’t tempt any Liga MX or Superliga Argentina coaches to hop on board. The ownership group decided that they were willing to more than double that salary structure in order to get a serious, talented coach. I’ve heard that Fioranelli had exactly such a higher-priced option lined up in summer 2017, but that it was overruled by ownership. They will not be repeating that mistake this time, and it may indicate that higher-paid, more-pedigreed coaches are to follow from here on out.

The third important thing this hire says is that the front office and ownership recognized that the coaching deficit was a catastrophic problem. There are legitimate debates to be had about to what extent San Jose’s worst-ever season in 2018 is the fault of inadequate skill on the field versus an incompetent coach (although I would point out that regardless of which side you fall on, GM Jesse Fioranelli bears responsibility either way). I have always argued that the coaching was the bigger problem, but even if you didn’t agree with me, it was certainly a massive problem. Since Fioranelli’s arrival in San Jose, he’s now on his 4th permanent coach after just two years. The first, Dominic Kinnear, had his team in a playoff position and sporting a +0.15 xGD/game figure that signaled a fringe playoff team. Jesse decided that wasn’t good enough, and inserted completely-without-experience Chris Leitch, who managed barely to squeak into the playoffs, on the back of a truly remarkable FC Dallas collapse, posting a -0.18 xGD/game figure that ordinarily would keep a team out of the postseason. Mika Stahre, from just about his first preseason game in charge, didn’t look competent, and his dreadful -0.35 xGD/game was an accurate reflection of his last place standing in the MLS table. Throughout this period, the team was adding its largest DP in team history and laid out its second-highest transfer fee, so it’s hard to argue that the personnel was, in isolation, the cause of the team’s decline. The team chemistry was a mess, and the defense, in particular, unraveled. Those are sure-fire signs of coaching problems.

The fourth thing it tells us is that Fioranelli may have the humility required to salvage the disaster created by both him and predecessor John Doyle. The fact that Fioranelli recognized the depth of the coaching issue is a sign of his competence, which lately has come into genuine question after the worst season in franchise history. I, specifically, have questioned whether Fioranelli might have a streak of arrogance that keeps him from recognizing his mistakes, but this is a reassuring sign that he may be able to correct course. That sort of humility will be necessary to rebuild a club that has two stars above its crest, and two Supporters’ Shields in the clubhouse.

It also seems to be a good indicator that Jesse may finally have been willing (or been forced?) to take his hands off the rudder of the team’s tactical and technical decisionmaking. That appeared to be a factor in the mediocre working relationship with Dom Kinnear, and Mika Stahre has apparently complained since his firing that Fioranelli exerted outsized influence on on-field decisions for a former agent working in a front office role. In contrast, it’s difficult to imagine that Matias Almeyda would have agreed to come to San Jose without complete discretion over tactics and other technical decisions, and even more difficult to imagine that in an internal argument between the two that ownership wouldn’t take Almeyda’s side. An empowered manager should allow him more ability to change the fortunes of the team and provide a valuable “check” against any mistakes or excesses made by the front office, rather than doubling down on them.

Add this all up, and the conclusion for me is this: San Jose has made an epic hire, punching above its weight, in a statement of intent that they want to return to relevance in MLS. It’s entirely possible that it will not work out, but if it doesn’t, it would seem more likely to be a product of the club’s dreadful culture of losing, and poor front office decisions, than inadequacy of the coach himself. Taking swings and missing is forgivable, for me and most San Jose fans, but hiring Mika Stahre felt more like not bothering to step into the batters box at all.

This is a once-proud franchise, in one of the top commercial and soccer regions in the United States. Now they have a coach worthy of that history. Let’s see how it goes.