The biggest bright spot for the San Jose Earthquakes since the MLS is Back tournament has been 20-year-old Peruvian Marcos López. He leads a crop of young players pushing the resurging Quakes back towards the playoff line. Photo credit: ISI Photos/San Jose Earthquakes
There was only one time in this writer’s life that tears came after a professional sporting result: in 2005 the Chicago White Sox ended their 87-year World Series drought. That White Sox team had players from the 2000 team that won 95 games on their way to an elusive AL Central division title. The marketing slogan for that 2000 team was “The Kids Can Play”. Five years later, The Kids Were Raising a Trophy. In those days, that was a short window.
After seeing two of the youngest starting lineups for the San Jose Earthquakes (since Opta data became available) first win at LAFC and then win again at home against the LA Galaxy, it has become clear to everyone–and hopefully now also manager Matías Almeyda–that “The 2020 San Jose ‘Kids’ Can Play.” Huh, you don’t say.
Constructing a youthful roster
With the rise (and then recent fall, giving way to the new MLS Next program) of the US Soccer Development Academy, MLS teams have begun stocking more young players in their rosters. The roster mechanisms in MLS even incent teams to do it. The Earthquakes have eight such “homegrown players” (in order of their announcement): Tommy Thompson, Nick Lima, JT Marcinkowski, Jacob Akanyirige, Gilbert Fuentes, Cade Cowell, Casey Walls, and Emi Ochoa. Several of these players were signed before their 17th birthday, and six of them were signed after December 2016.
Whether or not the Quakes Academy are directly responsible for the early development of these players, a few key ones are making their impact right now and spent a good amount of time practicing with the club before their college years: Thompson, Lima, and Marcinkowski. Of the youngest generation, Cowell and Akanyirige are starting to bang at the door.
Earthquakes GM Jesse Fioranelli has also been stocking through the MLS SuperDraft, something other clubs have, at times, eschewed. While not every signing has been a homerun (many players were, as of pre-Covid 2019, getting their time in USL Championship affiliate Reno 1868 FC or even moving onto Reno contracts: Lindo Mfeka, Kevin Partida, Sergio Rivas, and *wince* Danny Musovski come to mind), others are in the roster and making varying levels of impact, such as Jackson Yueill, Tanner Beason, and Paul Marie. Siad Haji has recently been in the gameday 20, but not yet seen playing time. Jack Skahan was recently injured and finally made a gameday 20 for the first time since the MLS is Back tournament against LAFC.
Fioranelli has also pulled a couple players, from a similar age group as the SuperDraft picks, out of the most recent incarnation of the now-defunct NASL league: Eric Calvillo (22) and Luis Felipe Fernandes (24). It’s safe to say these players have still been adjusting the nuances of Almeyda’s system, but they may be given more time to adjust.
Then, in retrospect, the best piece of business that Fioranelli has done may have been for a then-19-year-old left winger/left back Marcos López, swiping him from Sporting Cristal in Peru’s Primera Division. The transfer fee amount was disputed at the time, but the Peruvian football media indicated it was for a song (under $100K). According to Transfermarkt, the López market value has gone from $83K to now $385K (if you put your faith in such things) and was as high as $440K last year. We bet that it rises quickly this offseason.
San Jose, and the league, gets younger
Having a lot of youth is not strange in MLS. FC Dallas lists 29 (!) current and former players from their academy on their website. 12 of those are in their current roster, and Reggie Cannon just left for Portugal. The Philadephia Union proved last season they could be a serious threat in the Eastern Conference with a median lineup age as low as 25-and-a-half (25.5). In this bastardized season alone, Philadelphia, LAFC, New York Red Bulls, Montreal, and Colorado are regularly fielding lineups with a median age under 26. League-wide the average starting lineup age (27.38) is the youngest it has been since the 2013 season (27.22) and the median age is only slightly higher for both years.
In this case, the median is more statistically relevant than the mean (average), because we are looking for where the player age cluster is. We don’t want this thrown off by one or two older players (Chris Wondolowski and Daniel Vega, for example) who will set the mean where no starter’s age exists.
The last five game stretch has set a low median age compared to the previous ten games.
The recent five games have set a low median age for the San Jose Earthquakes since at least 2013 when this data became available. They had several low games in 2018, but those were typically one- or two-game blips and not something they were truly committed to.
Many MLS teams are setting low median ages in 2020, thanks in part to a compressed schedule, but also due to the growth of MLS academies and roster incentives.
There has been only one game in 2020 where Almeyda did not start Wondolowski or Vega: the starting 11 against the Portland Timbers where the Quakes earned a 1-1 draw. In the same game 33-year-old Guram Kashia sustained an injury and 18-year-old Akanyirige received his only start.
The kids are making an impact
The Earthquakes have 2.33 points per game in the three games with 23-year-old JT Marcinkowski in goal. Photo credit: ISI Photos/San Jose Earthquakes
Almeyda has been very hesitant about depending on younger players since arriving in San Jose, although that story has its conflicts. Jackson Yueill is only 23–was 22 last year–and has started almost every game for Almeyda. Tommy Thompson and Nick Lima were both 24 last season and played in the majority of games. The team’s most exciting player, Cristian Espinoza, was also 24 last season. Age does not seem to be the limiting factor for starting that Almeyda claims it is.
The biggest recent change, without a doubt, has to be the recent starts for 23-year-old JT Marcinkowski in goal. In those games, the Quakes are 2-0-1 (7 points, 2.33 PPG) with a +2 goal differential. In the games started by Vega, the team is 2-6-4 (10 points, 0.83 PPG) with a -21 goal differential. That’s a staggering 1.5 points-per-game difference. Now correlation does not imply or equal causation. If statistics are not your thing, here are some humorous examples explaining that comment.
But one reason San Jose is doing better with Marcinkowski in goal is they are simply facing far fewer shots and far fewer shots on target. In a small sample size, this huge difference is being played out so far in a big way.
As the graph shows, when Vega starts the Earthquakes give up an average of 14 shots and 6.6 on target. Conversely, when Marcinkowski starts the team gives up an average of 9.3 shots with 2.3 on target–that’s almost one-third of the on-target rate for Vega. Both keepers have a save rate of 54%, but a team can’t give up five goals a game if the opponent isn’t even shooting at the net that many times (insert the gif meme of the man pointing to his head and smiling).
So how do we account for such a stark difference? One reason may be Marcinkowski’s passing or at least the threat his passing portends. Up against Vega’s passing, this may be causing teams to play the Quakes differently. See this photo courtesy of Quakes Talk’s Alex Morgan of the LA Galaxy’s highly-compressed mid-block in the first half of last Saturday’s game.
The Galaxy allowed Marcinkowski to pass behind them all day long, preventing the type of pass over the top of them that JT was able to hit against LAFC. Either way, JT’s presence has a role in relieving pressure the Quakes have faced often since the MLS is Back Tournament where Minnesota United high-pressed San Jose into multiple mistakes in their own third and out of the tournament.
This chart is pretty equitable when you consider that both keepers played a game each against the Galaxy and Timbers. The biggest difference Marcinkowski makes is drawing pressure in and then hitting balls in behind on the wings. Often this happens after JT plays a short pass in front of the goal, usually as a wall pass to give him some shield from direct pressure.
Opposing attackers often like to force goalkeepers to pass a particular direction with bent runs. Vega has a spot of death to his left near midfield where he often tries to hit long balls, and either he’s being stubborn in hitting balls there, or defenses have figured out if they pressure him from his right he will consistently try it to hit it there. The Quakes lack the aerial and hold up play to win those balls in that area, even if they anticipate it. You can picture a vicious circle of losing the ball, defensive scrambles, an opposing shot (often enough a goal), followed by a goal kick or long pass right back into the same area, only to lose the ball again.
“We can’t connect three passes. When we’re building out of our back, and losing the ball at midfield, [we] can’t create chances…And that [creates] a snowball effect…”
– Chris Wondolowski, after the 5-0 loss to the Colorado Rapids on September 23rd
Not having Marcinkowski in goal to orchestrate the passing out of the back contributes to the cascading effect Chris Wondolowski talked about after the 5-0 loss at Colorado: “We can’t connect three passes. When we’re building out of our back, and losing the ball at midfield, [we] can’t create chances. [We] can’t win the ball high up the field if we can’t possess the ball. If we can’t keep it more than five passes, then we can’t do what we want to do. And that [creates] a snowball effect and a domino effect, where once that goes down and then the next thing [happens]. Now we’re defending more, we’re a step late to our guy, because we’re opening up and then we’re tired, which means less movement when we have the ball.” Wow, that’s an important lesson about building out of the back from MLS’s all-time leading scorer. School is in session.
This only serves to underscore the importance of a 10 who can hold a ball under pressure and a 9 who can win aerials and put second balls to the feet of a 10 and others who can play forward. Right now the Quakes have neither.
Given this, these plans are subject to fall apart based on how teams adapt to the understanding of them and take advantage of it, and historically Almeyda has been sluggish to respond. Bob Bradley’s LAFC, one of the best counter-pressing teams in MLS, did this to great success in first half of San Jose’s road win. They swarmed players like Jackson Yueill, who they had isolated, to win balls back. Yueill and Judson had four turnovers each. Fierro added another six, including two in the Quakes own half. In total, according to WhoScored, San Jose committed 16 turnovers in their own half to LAFC’s nine. San Jose will need to adjust earlier to this type of pressure, or they will risk going down too far before halftime to mount a comeback.
WhoScored shows 16 dispossessions and “poor touch” turnovers by San Jose against LAFC in their own half of the pitch.
When things don’t go according to plan, Marcinkowski understands his job is to be a communicator, “I think for me personally, it’s just trying to communicate as much as I can back there and be loud and be heard by my teammates. I just really try to be the voice in the back and make sure they can keep going and keep playing hard. At the end of the day, it’s up to them, and I just try to do my part.”
But the youthful silver lining doesn’t end with Marcinkowski. Marcos López has emerged as perhaps the best San Jose player since MLS is Back. He has a goal and an assist in eight games and is averaging 1.2 key passes per 90 minutes. Defensively he’s shown improvement over 2019, and he’s rarely been at fault for the goals San Jose has surrendered in the blowout losses. He’s also been the Quakes’ most progressive passer since Magnus Eriksson’s departure. Saturday’s win over the Galaxy is just the most recent example of this type of passing chart, courtesy of MLSsoccer.com’s Opta chalkboard.
If anything, the kid should tone it down and actually try a short pass on occasion that isn’t a backwards one. But when barely anyone else is trying aggressive passes, López is a breath of fresh air. At least he’s trying to create something.
Rookie Tanner Beason has shown a lot of promise in the last couple of games for San Jose and leads the team in a few statistical categories. Photo credit: ISI Photos/San Jose Earthquakes
Another “youngster” (to use Almeyda’s word) who has shown significant improvement is left center back Tanner Beason. After a disastrous performance in the 5-1 loss back on September 2nd, where he was arguably at fault for three LAFC goals, Beason was forced back into the lineup on September 20th against Portland due to injuries to other left center backs. Since that 6-1 shellacking, he has been significantly better, particularly in front of Marcinkowski.
Soccer analysts don’t like to use defensive actions to judge a player’s ability. Some of the best MLS defenders steer actions to other parts of the pitch, because teams want to attack around them. Ike Opara is a good example of that type of defender. It’s like an NFL quarterback not passing to a favored receiver due to a particular cornerback’s coverage. That said, teams are probably going at “the young CB” because they’ve seen the tape of his mistakes against LAFC, and Beason has recently met the challenge, especially in his second game against LAFC. He currently leads the team in the following per 90 categories: interceptions (2.7), clearances (3.8), and blocks (2.2) — and no one else is anywhere close to him. Just look at this work rate.
He’s second to Judson (3.6) in tackles with 1.5 along with Alanís and Yueill. He appears to have a real talent for sensing shots and getting a foot to the ball to block shots and crosses, even when a little out of position.
Beason has also shown some on-field leadership recently. His leadership as a captain at Stanford was a key reason Fioranelli drafted him in the first round. If he’s in Alanís’ place next season because Fioranelli decides to spend on a 9 and a 10 instead, can any Quakes fan really be mad?
With López about to miss four to five games due to participating in two South American World Cup qualifiers, Beason might be an option to fill in at left back, allowing Alanís back in the lineup. Some caution should be provided there since Beason has not played at LB since 2017, his freshman year in college when he had 25 starts for Stanford.
Conclusion
Matías Almeyda may call them “youngsters”. He may think it’s unfortunate these darn kids have to play so much in this compressed schedule, but, aside from Shea Salinas, the players helping this Quakes team back into playoff contention are “the kids”. It’s no longer just Cristian Espinoza, Jackson Yueill, and the veterans. The thing we are finding out is: these kids can play.
