Before Oswaldo Alanís joined on January 28th, there was exactly one new player on the San Jose Earthquakes’ roster that was old enough to buy NyQuil on his own at the drugstore: Tanner Beason, the Stanford center-back who will likely be 4th choice on the depth chart.
With that little roster movement, especially when contrasted with the humungous, splashy signings in smaller-market teams like New England, Kansas City, and Vancouver, fans became justifiably concerned that their club was losing ground despite needing to move forward in order to make the 2020 playoffs. Tottenham Hotspur, once Europe’s favorite cinderella story, unravelled badly after an 18 month period with no signings, providing a case study for the idea that a roster must be continually renewed in order to compete at the highest level.
That perspective isn’t off-base. But I think it’s based on two ultimately incorrect assumptions: 1) that money spent is always better than not spending money 2) that the Quakes didn’t spend money in an offseason where they shattered their transfer record. I just think it’s useful to keep in mind that money is finite for all clubs (particularly those in salary-capped leagues), and money spent poorly today takes away from the ability to spend money well tomorrow. And anything you do to accumulate value, even if it doesn’t improve your current roster, improves your ability to spend more and be more aggressive in the future.
San Jose General Manager Jesse Fioranelli is clear about why continuity was warranted in this case: “We believe in this team. If we didn’t, we would see new faces. I think that speaks for itself. A team has to grow with each other. In our second year with Matías, we will grow.”
So the question is not “should the ownership spend more in general” (since even I, a long-term spending realist, would concede that), the questions are “did the Front Office improve the club’s ability to compete over the next five years?” and “will those improvements be enough to make the playoffs in 2020?”
I think my answer to the first is an unambiguous “yes,” and the second is a qualified “maybe.” Here are four reasons why:
Accumulating Value: A Record Transfer Fee, Extensions, and Homegrowns
Simply put, Judson and Cristian Espinoza were not on the 2020 roster until this offseason, and it’s a mistake to look at it any other way. Both had 2019 loans that expired, and quite frankly, they weren’t going to get them on loan for the same terms again, in part because of how strong their 2019 seasons were. Moreover, having them on loan gives you their playing value for the year, but it doesn’t give you access to their transfer value, nor future years of service. And clubs from all levels of the money spectrum, from Ajax to Liverpool, have built recent successes on the back of developing huge transfer value in their players, cashing in on it, and reinvesting it wisely.
That’s why locking down Judson and Espinoza is such a huge deal, and represents such a step forward for the club, even though at a surface level the roster appears unchanged. Judson’s fee was set in his loan contract, and based on my sources was an excellent deal, but where we really need to focus on is Espinoza, who signed for a reported $2.5 million, breaking the club transfer record.
24-year-olds with La Liga clubs and Argentina youth national team appearances, coming off a strong season, with more than a year left on their contracts, simply don’t go for that little. And even more rarely would such a player willingly sign in MLS. Keep in mind, he was second in MLS in xA/96, ahead of numerous multimillionaire creators. That’s a huge coup. How did they pull it off?
“If Cristian didn’t have the commitment to us that he did, Villareal could’ve sold him for substantially more,” according to Fioranelli. “Also, our season ended at an opportune time. That’s not when European clubs are negotiating new signings.”
That’s the Almeyda Effect for you.
Fioranelli also wouldn’t want you to sleep on the Judson transaction, just because it was an unsexy exercise of an option to buy. The Swiss GM is a huge fan of the Brazilian: “If Judson had an American passport, he could be a candidate for the US national team. He covers ground, he’s a team player, and he’s respected in the locker room.”
I’d also note in this section that continuing the flow of homegrowns, with Casey Walls and Emi Ochoa joining the ranks, adds to this long-term accumulation of value. Teenagers are always a lottery ticket, but San Jose is starting to generate quite a few of them, and when they pay off, they alter the course of the franchise, both in their preferential salary cap status and in their larger share of transfer revenues (not to mention the lower cost of acquisition).
Finally, there were a number of new contracts that aided the club in both accumulating transfer value and managing long term cap space. Eric Calvillo signed an extension that will allow San Jose to cash in if he develops (more on that momentarily), which functions very similar to the transfers noted above. Per Jesse, “we were really excited to prolong the contract with Eric. We sensed he really wanted to be in San Jose.” Chris Wondolowski and Florian Jungwirth also signed new contracts at lower annual values, giving the club more space and flexibility going into the summer market.
While Fioranelli certainly wouldn’t comment on future transfer plans, it’s very clear that he sees the summer market as more fruitful than the winter one, and I would not discount a move then. Particularly, though, I’d focus on next winter, when a large number of contracts (12 by my estimate, many of them large) are due to expire. That will leave the club with a huge amount of blank space upon which to compose the next generation, and potentially take a step up in terms of talent level.
To put it in Jesse’s words, “What we would want to do is to continue to reinforce our roster one transfer period at a time, selectively and positionally…we aren’t shying away from investment. When opportunity presents itself, we’ll take it.”
“We’re in a better position this year than last year. It was very important for us to retain as much of the roster as we could. We started 7 months ago in discussion with our players…As we look forward, we have expanded our scouting network significantly. We’ll have many more options to draw from.”
Pathways for youth to provide upgrades
On that note, one reason for optimism in 2020 is that a few of the younger players are graduating into a position where they’ll take on larger roles in the first team, and could represent upgrades on those they’re replacing. In particular, I have my eyes on Eric Calvillo, JT Marcinkowski, and Marcos Lopez.
Calvillo is a really talented cat, who two years ago stood out on tape in NASL, and is still just 22. The club clearly values him, given that extension, and he looked good in Reno last year. I asked Jesse about what position the club sees his development in, given that he’s currently mostly playing as a 10 but I have always seen him as a long-term 8:
“Rather than tying him into a single position, [focus on] his qualities on and off the ball, and the fact he covers so much ground, helps create a bridge in our buildup and [is] able to provide solutions in attack. He too is now realizing he has an opportunity in front of him.”
With Jackson Yueill potentially missing significant time on national team duty, don’t be surprised if the SoCal native steps in and makes a big contribution this year. If he does, that could be where the upgraded results come from.
I discussed Marcinkowski’s situation last week, but there’s a real possibility that his development will continue and he’ll seize the starting spot from Daniel Vega and provide a major upgrade, particularly with his feet. Marcos Lopez, who did start quite a few games last year, has only just turned 20 and could be primed for a more mature, consistent set of performances this year, given his obvious athleticism and potential. At worst, he could provide competition for Nick Lima and push him to recapture his 2018 form. If any of these three youngsters come through, they’ll be like proverbial “new signings” that add quality to the first team without the need to acquire new players.
In my opinion, not all of the vaunted youth players are quite ready to make that leap. Siad Haji, Cade Cowell, and Gilbert Fuentes, while all undoubtably gifted, are probably not quite there yet for major roles in San Jose. All three will likely spend much of the season proving themselves in Reno. However, there remains the possibility that one of them will make the leap in development and become a contributor in black and blue by the end of the season. Fioranelli went out of his way to describe the level of investment in the support system for youngsters, that includes nutrition, sports psychology, and conditioning that simply didn’t exist at the club 5 years ago.
Full offseason will benefit tactical flexibility, Fierro and Ríos in particular
I made no secret of my distaste for the Carlos Fierro and Andy Ríos signings last summer, mostly because I thought the financial profile was wrong, and their on-pitch contributions did little to quell my doubts. However, the new CBA made them part of a smaller privileged class of TAM players, and with a system as idiosyncratic as Almeyda’s, there is little doubt that the Front Office saw their primary contributions as likely coming after the benefit of a full offseason with the club. As such, I naturally asked Jesse about his thoughts on the matter:
“[They’ll] definitely be in a better position. Not only do they know how Matias plays, but they’ll have a preseason.”
“We signed them because we didn’t want to sign players with identical qualities of other players on our roster. We wanted to sign Andy Ríos because he’s the type of striker who can act as a pivot like very few. He’s not the type of striker that is comparable to Magnus, who is very strong in his last pass. But Andy is a player that tends to look straight to goal. His physical presence and technical skills will compliment [us] well.”
“Fierro is a more vertical player than Vako. He’s technical [but] doesn’t shy away from the middle. We believe we’ll see much more of that. He’ll be a better place physically to have the confidence that he had at Chivas”
That line of thinking interested me, and it ran through a lot of Jesse’s feedback: while Almeyda’s system certainly demands players to be a “fit” for his system, in terms of physical stamina and willingness to work, that doesn’t mean that he’s looking for a very narrow profile of player. In fact, it appears that variety is a priority. This preseason, we’ve even seen a bit of cross-training, where Magnus Eriksson spent significant time in the pivot (perhaps as a result of Almeyda reading Asher Kohn’s article?).
That could be important, since one of the major failings of the team down the stretch was an inability to change approach or adapt to a game state. The deep bench of attackers, who present different types of qualities, might be able to unlock those games they chased late on. We’ve already seen increased use of a traditional “flat” 4-4-2 in the preseason, which we saw very little of last year, as an alternative look.
I will note, however, that the one major area of depth deficit could end up being in the double pivot. Yueill and Judson, when healthy, are an excellent pairing. But Yueill, as noted above, will miss significant time with the national team, and Judson doesn’t appear to have been fit at any point through this preseason. Behind them, you have a converted striker in Eriksson, who may or may not fit the bill, Eric Calvillo, who has also yet to prove himself in that role, and Luis Felipe, a good backup 6 who to my eyes appears to be an awkward fit for Almeyda’s system. If a player is acquired in the summer, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is where the money is spent.
The one major addition, Oswaldo Alanís, will have a major impact
To the extent you’ll see any new faces in the game-day 18, it’ll be with the 23-times-capped Mexican international Alanís. He’s got pedigree and quality, and most importantly, has experience under Almeyda at Chivas, so he should be a seamless fit into the system.
Most importantly, it was an obvious area of need, particularly after allowing about 2 goals a game for the last third of the season: “Once we looked at the entire roster, we saw a need at center back,” said Fioranelli. “We felt very confident with Alanís, and it all made sense from a financial perspective.”
“Oswaldo was our priority. We followed him 12-18 months, even prior to Matías’s arrival. He was exactly the player we were looking for because he was left footed, he’s already played under the system of Matías, and we were trying to find the right type of leader in the back that, together with Florian and Guram, could hold the weight.”
We don’t yet know what kind of salary he’s on, and won’t until the MLSPA puts out its salary survey later in the spring, but I’d bet that Fioranelli pulled off a savvy loan deal for the man who was on a reported $1.2M/year in Guadalajara. It would be fair to ask, however, whether the soon-to-be 31-year-old will be able to replicate his peak form, coming off a so-so season in Liga MX.
Regardless, the defensive unwinding at the end of last season was no doubt the reason for the club’s failure to qualify for the playoffs. That’s not to suggest that Alanís will be an upgrade beyond a shadow of a doubt, nor that center-back was the root of those problems (rather than, say, a burned-out Judson), but from what I’ve seen of the three senior options, I would have more faith in an Alanís-Flo pairing than Flo-Kashia. If the Quakes were going to go out and spend money on a new TAM player, this is exactly where they should’ve done it.
Conclusion
I’m obviously of the opinion that the long-run roster health of the club improved over the course of this offseason, and sets up flexibility for potential moves in the summer and particularly next winter.
A slightly trickier question is whether the on-field product in 2020 will be better than the one we saw in 2019. I think the above are reasons to believe so, not in the least including the fact that it’s unlikely San Jose will start with 4 straight losses, effectively giving themselves a handicap in the playoff chase, since there will be no adjustment period to Almeyda’s system. And if you recall my article from the end of last season, there were statistical reasons to believe that this team was actually better than the results indicated last year, and therefore even a static product would stand a good chance of making the playoffs.
The argument against 2020 being a playoff year, however, is that other teams may have made more progress. Big, splashy signings across the league are hard not to notice, and San Jose’s big, splashy signing (Espinoza) is easy to discount since he was already on the roster on a loan deal. I will briefly editorialize and note that many of the Liga MX imports, in particular, are trading at a laughable premium, and I’m really glad that San Jose wasn’t suckered into, say, Alan Pulido for a monumental fee.
Fioranelli had an interesting way of assessing it, using an unexpected adjective in a positive way: “We’re one of the most annoying teams in MLS, not because we’re rambunctious, but the way Matias has trained the players. We can be competitive if we stick to our plan. That’s why we were exciting to watch. It might be part of the reason we fell short [last year]. Maybe we weren’t used to that pressure and expectations. “
“The sensation that we got from Cancun [this year] is the reason we’re confident. There are still several players who have yet to play their second season. We can be more annoying next year, more confident and courageous.”
But the truth is we won’t know until we see this team on the field. If they struggle, it’ll be Tottenham all over again. If they succeed, it’ll be a vindication of what a team can achieve when giving their all to a particular kind of system, and a focus on never over-extending oneself for bad value.
Another great read. Some really valuable insights. Thanks:)