San Jose Earthquakes

Could Guram Kashia simultaneously address center back and left back for the Earthquakes?

With the circus that is the Earthquakes’ sideline getting all the attention, you may have missed the arrival of Guram Kashia from Vitesse Arnhem of the Eredivisie  to help solve the center back woes on a team with a lot of center backs, and, arguably, no MLS-caliber left back. Following the Manchester United friendly, perhaps people are waking up, but the noticeable silence of #WelcomeGuram on Twitter, aside from the marketing team, has been deafening. At the time Kashia’s signing was announced, there was a bit of backlash even, namely the following concerns:

  1. Another international slot was being used on another center back
  2. Kashia is “underperforming” designated player Vako’s best buddy, so can he really be any good?
  3. Kashia was not a left back, the team’s “biggest hole”

Now that Kashia’s visa issues have been resolved, let’s talk about what may be able to be expected from the former Vitesse captain. If you are hoping for a massive bit of analysis that is going to prove that Guram Kashia will solve the Earthquakes center back issues, then you will probably be disappointed, as this writer can’t pronounce “Eredivisie” much less have the time to watch it. However, there is reason to believe Guram Kashia not only can solve the center back issues of the San Jose Earthquakes, but also help bandaid the left back issue for the remainder of 2018.

Concern #1: Another international slot was being used on another center back

The international slot issue was resolved because MLS has deemed Paul Marie in the category of “international players that don’t count against slots” as he is “on loan” to Reno 1868 FC. And then last week, Francois Affolter received his green card.

Good thing, because at the US Soccer Federation Hackathon a week back, the Harvard Sports team determined that middle-of-the-road center backs are a waste of an international slot.

This tweet was prior to the Affolter green card notice. While this means the Quakes will still have three international slots used on center backs – Kashia, Harold Cummings and Yeferson Quintana – it means it is not a pressing concern.

Concern #2: Kashia is “underperforming” designated player Vako’s best buddy, so can he really be any good?

The elephant is the room is not his relationship with Vako, but with Guram Kashia’s age – he turned 31 recently. In a league which values athleticism, and on a team where one of the biggest issues with the center backs is getting dribbled past easily, an aging center back may not seem like the best option.

Whether Vako is underperforming or not is a topic for another article, although he has been in an extended rut to be sure. Is Guram Kashia any good? The answer is a definitive yes – at least in the Eredivisie. Let’s start with the Vitesse defense:

Dutch Eredivisie 2017/18

# Team Pl W D L F A GD Pts
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 26 5 3 87 39 48 83
2 Ajax 34 25 4 5 89 33 56 79
3 AZ Alkmaar 34 22 5 7 72 38 34 71
4 Feyenoord 34 20 6 8 76 39 37 66
5 FC Utrecht 34 14 12 8 58 53 5 54
6 Vitesse Arnhem 34 13 10 11 63 47 16 49
7 ADO Den Haag 34 13 8 13 45 53 -8 47
8 Heerenveen 34 12 10 12 48 53 -5 46
9 PEC Zwolle 34 12 8 14 42 54 -12 44
10 Heracles Almelo 34 11 9 14 50 64 -14 42
11 Excelsior 34 11 7 16 41 56 -15 40
12 Groningen 34 8 14 12 50 50 0 38
13 Willem II 34 10 7 17 50 63 -13 37
14 NAC Breda 34 9 7 18 41 57 -16 34
15 VVV-Venlo 34 7 13 14 35 54 -19 34
16 Roda JC Kerk 34 8 6 20 42 69 -27 30
17 Sparta Rotterdam 34 7 6 21 34 75 -41 27
18 FC Twente 34 5 9 20 37 63 -26 24

While Vitesse ended up sixth in the league, they were fifth in goals against average and goal differential in a league with some dominant high-scoring teams, but also some really woeful teams. The Earthquakes, poor as they may be and without a regular-season clean sheet, are only on pace for around a -13 goal differential this season before they add Kashia. Try being a Sparta Rotterdam fan.

So to get a better sense for Kashia’s stats, we checked WhoScored.com. Kashia had a 7.25 rating in the 2017/2018 season for Vitesse. The highest performing San Jose Earthquakes player right now is Vako with a 7.22 season average, followed by Florian Jungwirth with 7.11 and Nick Lima with 7.10. The top center back is Harold Cummings with a 6.75 average. Within Vitesse, Guram Kashia was their third highest rated performer and top defensive player overall.

In the Eredivisie, here are Kashia’s ratings per 90 minutes played among center backs with 20 or more appearances in the 2017/2018 season:

  • Overall rating – 2nd (USMNT teammate Matt Miazga was 7th)

Offensive Categories:

  • Goals – tied for 2nd with 3
  • Key Passes – 2nd
  • Accurate Short Passes – 10th (87%)
  • Accurate Long Balls – 10th (just over 50%)
  • Successful Dribbles – 7th

Defensive Categories:

  • Aerials Won – 3rd (Miazga was 2nd)
  • Successful tackles – 6th
  • Interceptions – 9th
  • Fouls (fewest) – 15th
  • Cards (fewest) – 5th and no red cards
  • Clearances – 15th
  • Shots Blocked – 15th

What’s fair to say is that Kashia is one of the best offensive center backs and among the best center backs in the Eredivisie, full stop. If there is anything which gives me pause, it is the number of times Kashia was “dribbled on”. While teammate Matt Miazga was tied for third with 0.3 per game, Kashia was tied for 13th at 0.6. This will be something to watch as Kashia integrates into the team.

Unable to find a list of players who recently made the move from the Eredivisie to MLS, we did the most obvious thing and found a list of Dutch players who are currently in the MLS and previously played in the Eredivisie.

Player Typical Position MLS 2018 Team MLS WhoScored Rating Last Eredivisie Team Last Eredivisie Who Scored Rating
Johan Kappelhof Center Back Chicago Fire 6.75 (avg 2016-2018) FC Groningen 6.75 (2015/2016)
John Goossens Attacking Midfielder Chicago Fire 7.11 (2018) Feyenoord 6.33 (2013/2014)
Kelvin Leerdam Right Back Seattle Sounders 7.26 (2017)

6.54 (2018)

 Vitesse 6.72 (2016/2017)
Danny Hoesen Forward San Jose Earthquakes 6.68 (2017)

7.08 (2018)

 FC Groningen 6.69 (2016/2017)

From this short list, we can see there is not a definitive translation from the Eredivisie to MLS, but the ratings here are very similar, with the closest comparable players, Johan Kappelhof and Kevin Leerdam, making at least generally successful transitions for their skill level. And, hello there, Danny Hoesen.

Now for a bit of fun: Vako was Kashia’s teammate at Vitesse between 2013 and 2017 and also teammates with him on the Georgian national team. Here are their comparable WhoScored ratings at Vitesse:

Vitesse Season Guram Kashia Valeri Qazaishvili
2016/2017 7.23 6.95
2015/2016 7.45 6.90
2014/2015 7.53 6.99
2013/2014 7.34 6.67

There are a few things of note here:

  1. At 31, the ratings say Kashia is on the downward slope of his career, which is not surprising.
  2. It’s well-understood attacking players get higher ratings than defensive players in WhoScored, because their contributions are simpler to articulate in statistics.
  3. And given that, it’s even more impressive just how much better Kashia was than Vako at Vitesse.

In other words, if Vako is the current highest player on the Quakes, and Kashia is about 0.30 better than Vako, Kashia may be the best player on the Quakes, period. Yeah, let that sink in.

Concern #3: Kashia was not a left back, the team’s “biggest hole”

This is not a suggestion that Mika Stahre stick Kashia at left back. Instead, let’s discuss Shea Salinas. While the Quakes were starting to check out Reno 1868 FC defensive midfielder Kevin Partida for the LB role while Salinas was recently injured, given the injury just sustained by Partida, we may be waiting a while to see him again. And the rumor mill is not alive-and-buzzing about a left back about to be signed. So – and this could change very quickly – it appears the plan is to stick it out with Shea Salinas for the remainder of this lost season, and sign a dependable left back for next season.

Now, we all love Shea Salinas. If anyone who watches this team wants to rate the heart of players on this team, it starts with Wondo, then Flo, then Shea might be next. But he’s not a left back. Shea knows it, Jesse knows it, Mika knows it, everyone knows it. But yet here we are.

So let’s talk about Shea Salinas at left back. Last season, the discussion was actually about Shea being a “serviceable” left back for interim coach Chris Leitch after Shaun Francis was let go. Here are his WhoScored game ratings for last season at left back or left wing-back:

Opponent Date Game Position WS Rating
Colorado Rapids 7/29/2017 22 LWB 7.45
Columbus Crew SC 8/5/2017 23 LWB 7.08
Philadelphia Union 8/19/2017 25 LWB 6.85
Real Salt Lake 8/23/2017 26 LWB 6.69
LA Galaxy 8/27/2017 27 LWB 8.18
Toronto FC 9/9/2017 28 LB 6.06
Houston Dynamo 9/16/2017 29 LB 8.51
D.C. United 9/23/2017 30 LB 6.07
Chicago Fire 9/27/2017 31 LB 6.22
Portland Timbers 9/30/2017 32 LB 6.80
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 10/15/2017 33 LB 7.08
Minnesota United FC 10/22/2017 34 LB 7.00
Starting Average 6.99

In fact, most of the outside midfielder appearances for Shea were substitute appearances, and none of his three midfield starts had a rating better than 6.50. So, frankly, he was significantly better at left back or wing-back in 2017 than he was in the midfield.

For comparison, here are the WhoScored ratings for Shea Salinas’ starts this season prior to his recent injury:

Opponent Date Game Position WS Rating
Minnesota United FC 3/3/2018 1 LB 7.2
Sporting Kansas City 3/17/2018 2 LB 6.91
New York City FC 3/31/2018 3 LB 6.84
Orlando City SC 4/21/2018 6 LB 6.53
Portland Timbers 5/5/2018 8 LB 6.61
Minnesota United FC 5/12/2018 9 LM 6.11
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 5/16/2018 10 LWB 6.5
LA Galaxy 5/25/2018 12 LB 6.57
Chicago Fire 6/2/2018 13 RB 6.16
Starting Average       6.63

In those nine starts, Salinas has a 6.63 average compared to 6.99 in 2017. When you consider WhoScored begins ratings at a 6.0, that’s over a 50% difference. So what’s changed? Here’s a comparison between Salinas’ defensive actions in 2017 as left back/left wing-back under Leitch vs. 2018 under Stahre:

Visualization data courtesy of American Soccer Analysis (@AnalysisEvolved). See the full interactive visualization here.

There aren’t big differences in the number of actions under Leitch or under Stahre, but Salinas’ positioning is drastically changed — most of his actions are much deeper and closer to the sideline in 2018. Some of that may be coaching as the Quakes are definitely winning balls deeper in 2018, but he’s also dealing with a weaker central defense. Shea’s own confidence over the first part of the season clearly took a dip. His best game since the first Minnesota game was his sub appearance against the Timbers two weeks ago, where WhoScored awarded him a 7.01, followed by a not-all-that-bad-if-you-don’t-completely-blame-him-for-the-first-goal 6.99 (ahem, Nick Lima). Sometimes putting distance between the present and poor performances in the past can help fix confidence. Shea looked like his old self against the Galaxy at Stanford as well, just missing having an assist when Wondo’s 88th minute shot hit the post. In fact, according to American Soccer Analysis Expected Passing data, Shea is completing his passes at a 7.3% higher rate in 2018 than 2017 and is above his expected passing rate (xPassPct) in 2018 which he was not in 2017.

The real difference here could be center back leadership. Other than when Jungwirth plays center back, it just hasn’t been there. Elliot Almond of the San Jose Mercury News reported this comment from Jungwirth after the Manchester United friendly, “He coached from behind. That went very well. You’re not captain for Vitesse Arnhem for nothing.”

It seems the San Jose Earthquakes just got another field general like Wondo and Flo. Take a look:

Kashia’s English is excellent, by the way. If Guram can provide Shea the backline leadership he’s been lacking this season, we may see at least a return to 2017 form at the left back position. And if Shea returns to 2017 levels with Guram improving the central defense, this 2018 Earthquakes team may be able to get some home wins against the likes of Seattle and Colorado, and, ideally, at least a couple clean sheets.

Conclusion

The Earthquakes have dropped 14 points from winning positions this season and 16 points from any non 0-0 position. That is most in the league in both categories, and the key reason is the defense. Fixing the backline woes should give the Quakes a shot to win a few more games if for the mere fact, they ought to be less likely to lose a lead. Kashia indicated following the Manchester United friendly the Quakes should at least get 15 points this season. If they can resolved the dropped points issue, he may be right.

Nothing is guaranteed in bringing in a 31-year-old center back from Europe to MLS, but Quakes fans say they want passion, they want leadership, they want effort. They also want a left back. Maybe, in a way, the Earthquakes and their fans just got all these things at once.