Predicting MPG’s and Wondo’s 2016 Seasons

MPG might not get the big assist bump everyone is expecting

People generally think that MPG will have gotten used to the Quakes style of play and in MLS’ physicality, but a look at other Argentine midfielders performances’ tell a different tale. The results were surprising. Mauro Diaz was the only one to improve in both his Goals per 90 and Assists per 90 and Cristian Maidana was the only other player to see any improvement. This could be explained by teams focusing on players once they know they are a threat. Also, age could play a factor as most of the players except Diaz were pretty close to 30 by their second season. Nonetheless, Perez Garcia’s Goals per 90 and Assists per 90 were both small compared to the others, so he may have more room to grow from his first year.

Player Age in first full year Y1 G/90 Y1 A/90 Y2 G/90 Y2 A/90
Mauro Diaz 23 0.29 0.29 0.36 0.45
Diego Valeri 26 0.39 0.51 0.36 0.46
Cristian Maidana 27 0.10 0.52 .04 0.64
Javier Morales 28 0.22 0.54 0.04 0.22
Mauro Rosales 30 0.24 0.63 0.13 0.56
Matias Perez Garcia 30 0.09 0.31 ?? ??

MPG is a Definitey Right Winger

A look at Soccer America’s top 10 right wingers and top 10 attacking midfielders shows what bucket MPG falls into.

MPG

It turns out that MPG was playing like a right winger the entire season. In reality, the main factor was passes per 90 where MPG struggled with the Quakes lowest in possession in MLS. Additionally, in the last five games where MPG played as a right midfielder, his stats also look better with him putting more tackles, creating more chances, and taking more shots.

Wondo should score 12 or more goals

By looking at other career MLS players when they started ageing we can determine this number. Only players who maintained a high level of performance(scoring 10+ goals in three or more seasons) who played in MLS until they were at or above 34 were considered. The players included were Ante Razov, Brian Ching, Dwayne De Rosario, Edson Buddle, Jaime Moreno, Jason Kreis, and Jeff Cunningham. Check out graphs for each player’s scoring conversion %, minutes, and most importantly, non penalty goals per 90 here.

Average non penalty goals per 90 graph:

Wondolowski in blue, the rest in red

Wondolowski in blue, the rest in red

Wondolowski had a bit of a late start but if you look at his 2006 and 2007 numbers you can see that he performed very well in his limited minutes at Houston. If he maintains the average of 0.2571 goals per 90 and starts all the games he will score 8.7414 goals. Wondo has scored a penalty kick every season since he started taking then in 2011 and averages 3 PKs per season, which means Wondo is expected to score around 12 goals this year. Not that only two players made it to 35, Jaime Moreno and Dwayne De Rosario. Also, Edson Buddle and Jeff Cunningham were the only two players to start playing under 22, skewing the data for ages 19-21.

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